Me, not a stats guy, but also not stats illiterate: “surely these models have an adequate mechanism for dealing with something as obvious as ‘old republicans are picking up the phone, while others aren’t, really.”
The Nates: “nope!”
I'm not a polling or stats expert, but my understanding is that the way they would typically correct for a response bias is by projecting the results using models of prior electorates.
The real problems is that we're *also* experiencing a major political realignment
So, like, the prior electorates don't map cleanly onto the current electorates. So, one of the main strategies for resolving these kinds of response rate issues is severely impacted by the *other* major trend affecting pollsters
