Nick Davis: i grant the point but 888 cases in 21 years and then extrapolating that its a society killer...man, like, okay, but also thats like an order of magnitude so far down the road that i find myself going "ehhh?" then again recent events dont inspire so idk

Mammal to mammal transmission of h5n1 through raw milk appears to be confirmed now…. Seems we may find out how society reacts to a 50 + percent mortality rate. arstechnica.com/science/2024...

Cats suffer H5N1 brain infections, blindness, death after drinking raw milkarstechnica.com Mammal-to-mammal transmission raises new concerns about the virus's ability to spread.

Yeah idk man like there’s tail risk here obviously but in the grand scheme, where caveats abound given the recent circumstances, I think some caution about extrapolation is warranted. At least in the case of dairy, pasteurization kills the active infectious cells afaik.

That’s why we’re talking about raw milk.

yeah fair enough, though id still note that the 50% mortality rate thing feels a little much given half the cats on one farm died but idk ymmv.

It’s actually higher than that right now the world right wide mortality rate for age 511 is 65+ percent. I am being very conservative and all of my numbers here. This is a society killer if it goes pandemic.

i grant the point but 888 cases in 21 years and then extrapolating that its a society killer...man, like, okay, but also thats like an order of magnitude so far down the road that i find myself going "ehhh?" then again recent events dont inspire so idk

Yeah let me know how being pedantic goes for you. Let me guess you did this when Covid started too? Claimed it wasn’t that bad and we could “go back to normal”.

nah man. just conversing that i think its still super early days here. no offense meant, and i'm not trying to be pedantic. my apologies if thats the vibes.

You’re all good. I’m just talking to a number of different health officials that I know and most of them are starting to get the same kind of freaked out. They were two months before we started having cases pop off in the US for Covid. Granted the flu is much different and its transmission model.

And cloth masks alone will stop flu in a lot of cases, but the fact that it’s in the industrial food system is deeply concerning because of the way that could really spread this everywhere before we know it.

Pigs, and I don't mean the police, are a huge worry. If it gets into pigs, anything could happen. At the rate things are going I am not comfortable that it will be kept out of pigs forever.

We probably won’t know until far after it’s in the industrial pig farming population just purely because of the way that it is run and the level of corruption around it

It's been good knowing you, Karl.

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