Murray Christison

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Murray Christison

@pieman70.bsky.social

Mildly bemused engineer, also husband, father, railwayman. Definitely liberal and drifting leftward on a daily basis. He/Him
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See, with reform you are never sure if it means he was so racist even reform were shocked or he said something nice about an immigrant.
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I feel more like one of the Mechanicus when I say “it’s the algorithm” because it feels like some ineffable force beyond our Ken that we have to appease, so I guess rub some holy oils on your router and chant the litany of YouTube hits.
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Glad to leave you on more comforting info. I am duty bound to say the system is broken badly with these percentages even when it works in our favour.
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Right. Once for people who don’t understand the system National % is pretty meaningless because it is how it translates to seats because our system is rubbish. Seat predictions Lab - 465 Con- 65 LD - 71 Ref - 6 Grn - 3 SNO - 18 PC - 3 How can a 71 seat coalition beat 465?
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Tory and Reform literally cannot win unless 1. You vote Tory or reform Or 2. Someone votes Labour in a Tory/anyone else marginal because someone has foolishly said “Labour or Nothing”
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But it does because government isn’t just PMQs and whoever is in charge, MPs do more than just turn up to vote. If we have what you are unwittingly advocating for, massive labour govt with Tory/reform opposition, the only tweaks, amendments and motions will be rightwards
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On the other hand, smaller Labour majority with a Lib Dem, SNP, green opposition pulls stuff leftwards, because labour are not the centre anymore by a long stretch.
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The Tory/reform coalition government is something you seem to accept as impossible except when it is a bogeyman to anyone not voting Labour. This is not the US, the winner is not president. Once you understand that and how parliament actually works we will talk
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I would disagree. There are good MPs in many parties. And ultimately an uninspiring centre and Labour Party is what will open the door to the actual facials. In the UK there is zero chance of a fascist in govt (outside of the more authoritarian labour)
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The worst we might have is reform getting one or two MPs, and all that will do is what they have been for from day 1, move the big two rightwards, run off with donations and vanish for he next 4 years. We can wipe the Torys out without handing it all to A Labour Party that doesn’t deserve it
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And “all MPs are shit” is what the big parties say to stop you asking for better
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Do you think Reform are saying “actually best stand down, keep the Tory numbers up” but you are advocating giving Labour, a party on a rightward slide, an absolute massive unassailable majority with no progressive opposition will stop fascism? And you call me optimistic
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I’d argue you are coming at this because Labour aren’t protection from imminent fascism. The only way to change Labour at all (experience tells me it won’t) is to show the left vote is going elsewhere. In an election this clear cut it is the best time to show them.
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Did the rest of the party say “we think Corbin is too left wing but we have to back him or we get Boris fucking Johnson” no, they briefed against their own leader and gave us this shit show. It is the people in charge of the party that delivered a Tory Majority.
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The last election was a knife edge and the people who are now telling us we must deliver Labour and only Labour couldn’t bring themselves to vote Labour when they didn’t like the guy in charge. Oddly enough I’m not really willing to take “vote Labour or we are all doomed from them now”
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You assume Labour are an opponent. I don’t see it, they agree with tories and reform more than disagree. The left wing remaining in labour have no ability to change things.
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Sorry that doesn’t make sense, the only question this election is how big a majority Labour will get. We already know they will use a massive majority to do pretty much what the tories are doing now, can’t really see how not giving Labour all the seats stops bad things happening?
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For my money, no party should ever have a big majority. There should always be an element of cross party cooperation. Despite the tories changing many rules to make it not the case government is more than parliament and a mix of parties means more at committee stages etc.
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It is why the tories tried to knobble how committees are formed, because it was moderating their excesses.
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I would say the Lib-dems would disagree. And by that argument we shouldn’t worry about reform. Remember it is constituency that matters in FPTP, national percentages are largely irrelevant (Don’t think there has been a government with 50% nationally in 20 years)…
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So, if you are in a Tory/Lib dem marginal then voting Labour gets you Tory. Now if you are in a race the tories can’t win, you can endorse the most right wing Labour Party in history or back someone else for a good opposition. Check your local polling, it is really easy.
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The only people telling you there is a danger of a Tory/reform coalition are the people in Labour who really don’t want you to provide evidence you want a more left wing government, why would they want to try and scare you into supporting them?
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I would argue the Labour if it is Labour/tory but weakening the Labour majority is that. Unless polling is off in a way that basically means it is useless the “because Labour don’t win all the seats a Tory/reform coalition gets in” just isn’t on the cards
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Now obviously Labour are very keen for people to believe it is because they really don’t want their left to look at better options. Hence why Starmer has now decided FPTP is great actually. You have Tory or Tory and you better not vote someone else or the Torys get in
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Experience of the Blair government says that is not going to happen. What a massive majority will tell them is that courting the right is the only way to stay in power and the left will follow no matter what (basically Labour policies for most of the last 20 years).
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They have kicked out 99% of anyone with principals. Hell they were outflanked on the left by the SNP for nearly 20 years and they haven’t changed a damn thing, the strategy was wait for the SNP to wear out and the left will have to come back to offer votes but nothing else.
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So consider Brighton, green seat, by all accounts will still be green because they have a clear lead over even Labour and tories are in 3rd/4th. Why vote Labour there? Would you prefer a green MP or for Labour to have 300 seats as opposed to 299?
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My ideal is for labour to do not as well as expected but for all losses to be to parties who aren’t Tory/reform (or obviously not Galloway’s mob) They will still say their right wing route was correct but there is more chance of reform than an absolute wipeout.