Charles Franklin: The indictments of Donald Trump have *not* boosted him in the polls, either for favorability or for his support in the GOP primary. This claim keeps being repeated as if the data support it. It does not. pollsandvotes.com?p=455

The indictments of Donald Trump have *not* boosted him in the polls, either for favorability or for his support in the GOP primary. This claim keeps being repeated as if the data support it. It does not. pollsandvotes.com?p=455

Trump polling and his indictments - PollsAndVotespollsandvotes.com To cut to the chase, the indictments of Donald Trump have not boosted him in the polls, either for favorability or for his support in the GOP primary. This claim keeps being repeated as if the data su...

Trump’s net favorability inched up 1.5-2 points following the first indictment in New York on March 30, 2023, from a median of -14.0 to -12.5, and mean of -14.2 to -12.2. This is the only period of a (slight) improvement compared to the pre-indictment period

Compared to pre-indictment, Trump did have higher support among Republicans in the primary vote following the New York indictment, a median of 49% prior to the NY indictment and 57% after NY but before Florida. There was no further change after Florida or after DC & now 58% But..

Trump’s support for the nomination had been rising steadily since Jan. 1 through the spring. It rose at the same rate following the New York indictment as it had been rising prior to the indictment. The trend levels off in early May, a month after the NY indictment.

Since mid-may there has been very little trend in Trump’s primary vote. Trump’s margin over DeSantis has continued to climb but that is due entirely to DeSantis’ collapse in the polls, not to any gains by Trump since May.

But how’s he doing with the “urban” demographic. I hear from conservatives he’s making inroads and all he needs to clinch it is cornrows

That's a psy-op, astroturf

Is it appropriate to analyze this data with a smoothing procedure? By eye, the March 30 event appears to be a step from around 51 points to around 57 points. The other events look flat, as one might expect if one could only go to the well once.

I think the lack of polling movement after indictment(s) is notable too, but it should be reported that way (and I think more accurately reflects how GOP primary voters react to Trump-centric news)

“Indictments help Trump” is folklore that needs to be corrected. There is no polling evidence the indictments help, or hurt, Trump. Any effect of criminal trials remains to be seen. Just the numbers here:

50+ million GOP voters are confident Trump won in 2020 and certain he will win "again" in 2024. No facts, evidence, logic, or polling will ever change their minds

There you go again using evidence.

This is great. Best time series take I've seen Another source of the "indictments help Trump" claim is direct Qs about how they affect attitudes. We debunk that here osf.io/csh8g

osf.io

Thanks Matt. Also: I reposted a link to your article a week or two ago. Recommended.

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