Charles Franklin

@pollsandvotes.bsky.social

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Director, Marquette Law School poll. Co-founder Pollster.com. Prof Emeritus UW-Madison. R nerd. Site: https://pollsandvotes.com

MULawPoll: https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/

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Pre-post SOTU polls. Polls conducted in 2 weeks before & 2 weeks after. All national RV.

Has Trump behaved illegally? A NYTimes poll finds fewer voters saying he committed serious crimes, Dems down 7 & inds down 9 since Dec. But my @MULawPoll national polling doesn't agree, finding growth in belief he had secret documents and only 1 point down on election case 1/n

For those unhappy with NYT/Seina poll today: things may change by Nov. That’s why there is a campaign. But the NYT poll is not an outlier. Biden’s standing has fallen & Trump’s improved since Nov. 2021 in my @MULawPoll national surveys. And Biden trails on issues & achievements

NYTimes/Siena poll raises red-flags for the Biden campaign. One issue they mention is how 2020 voters are voting in 2024 My @MULawPoll data speak to this. Trump holds 10 points more past supporters than Biden. We have 8 months to go for the campaign. rpubs.com/PollsAndVote...

Lots of talk this week about unhappy partisans: What will Haley voters do? What about Dems who disapprove of Biden? Here is how those grumpy partisans say they'll vote. How that may change is why we have campaigns. rpubs.com/PollsAndVote...

Polls are valuable for the state of the race today. And more valuable looking back to understand how we got here. The GOP race that wasn’t. pollsandvotes.com?p=477

From my @MULawPoll of Wisconsin released Feb 7. Partisan doubts about the other party’s candidate actually getting the nomination.

From WisPolitics “Elections Commission unanimously approved the Green Party for Wisconsin’s presidential ballot, perhaps complicating Joe Biden’s path to winning the state again.” In 2016 Green got 1.04%, 31,072 votes. Libertarian got 3.58%, 106,674. Total 3rd pty was 5.55%

Hear ye, hear ye! New @MULawPoll out Feb 7 at 12:15pm CT. Posted to web 1:15. Stream link will appear at this link shortly before event begins. law.marquette.edu/2024-02-07/i...

On the Issues: Marquette Law School Poll | Marquette University Law Schoollaw.marquette.edu

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Charles Franklin

👀 @pollsandvotes.bsky.social in the bronze medal position (can we horserace the horserace polls?). And he's so transparent, you can see right through him.

New pollster ratings (and ratings method) just dropped projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-rat...

Two tales of DeSantis campaign. 1 initial strength vs Trump faded and 2. Appeal among pro-Trump Reps fell while Haley won the anti-Trump Reps. @MULawPoll national polls.

NH Suffolk tracking poll.

In other economic news today…

UMich: “Consumer sentiment soared 13% in January to reach its highest level since July 2021, showing that the sharp increase in December was no fluke. Consumer views were supported by confidence that inflation has turned a corner” sca.isr.umich.edu

Polling had a good night in Iowa. DeSantis did a bit better than expected while Trump & Haley were quite close to their poll averages.

Analysis of the proposed Wisconsin redistricting plans by John Johnson, @jdjmke is up. This work by @MULawLubar center has provided independent analysis of each redistricting proposal since 2020. Analysis at law.marquette.edu/facultyblog/... Data and code at github.com/jdjohn215/wi...

Hoth, Wisconsin.

Snow day after.

Swing states that will decide the electoral college: MI NV PA WI AZ GA, NC? How many points might each move and in which directions?

It was 50 degrees in Madison on Christmas Day. BUT we had to postpone Christmas until today… and lo and behold: white Christmas for us today.

National & state buttons plus New York state & local candidates. Now to identify candidates and years.

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Charles Franklin

It will be interesting to see the new legislative maps bc Wisconsin isn't as geographically sorted at the county level, nor are its rural counties as deeply red, as my home state of Ohio (2020 maps w/ the same color gradients for both states).

New legislative districts in Wisconsin for 2024. www.jsonline.com/story/news/p...

Wisconsin Supreme Court rules legislative maps unconstitutional, orders new boundaries for 2024 votewww.jsonline.com The 4-3 ruling delivered by the Wisconsin Supreme Court's new liberal majority delivers a long-sought win for Democrats.

Rise in consumer confidence in Dec. Headline highlights the positive movement. My read of the chart is short term rise but not yet a clear upward trend and still down from 2021 peak and pre pandemic levels. Still a hint of improving confidence. www.conference-board.org/topics/consu...

New Cook Political Report moves MI and NV to tossup from lean Dem. That puts electoral vote at 235 Trump, 225 Biden, 78 tossup. See map, and electoral vote chart for perspective on 6 Cook tossup states. Biden won Mi by 2.78 and NV by 2.39 ppt.

Story by Steven Shepard @politico on why Haley runs stronger vs Biden than Trump does. My @MULawPoll , Fox and CNN have similar findings recently. www.politico.com/news/2023/12...

Washington Post article uses my MULawPoll data showing DeSantis’s early strength but subsequent decline. I’d add this was the glimpse of a race that might have been if the DeSantis campaign had managed to exploit their early opportunity. wapo.st/47EKlN5

Look who has the #2 most read story on @politico this morning: @MileahKromer !! Sweet. www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Democrats Are Panicking About the Wrong Thingwww.politico.com Polls that show Joe Biden trailing other candidates aren’t worth much at this point. What voters are saying about the economy is what Democrats need to be alarmed about

GOP primary: in March DeSantis was winning 31% of Reps *favorable* to Trump, but that has fallen & Trump added support. Among Reps *unfavorable* to Trump DeSantis collapse even larger, Haley rising, sharply in Nov. But in Nov 78% fav to Trump, only 22% unfav. @MULawPoll Nat’l