NYTimes/Siena poll raises red-flags for the Biden campaign. One issue they mention is how 2020 voters are voting in 2024
My @MULawPoll data speak to this. Trump holds 10 points more past supporters than Biden.
We have 8 months to go for the campaign.
rpubs.com/PollsAndVote...
Any concern on sampling issues? The 2020 race (popular vote and EC) was won by Biden, but you have a larger proportion of 2020 Trump vs Biden voters. The "someone else" sample also seems large, but I admit I can't recall how many third party voters there were in 2020.
We have more Biden than Trump in 2020.
Among those who did vote in 2020, the pooled survey finds 45% for Trump, 51% for Biden and 4% for someone else.
The popular vote in 2020 was 46.8% for Trump, 51.2% for Biden and 2% for others.
