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Blocked.
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imo its been a bit disingenous of elex forecasters to say that lay ppl shouldnt dig into crosstabs when they regularly mine them to write "Biden in trouble w XYZ group" articles. Presently, toplines are built on crosstabs that are telling us some wild stuff that we arent seeing in actual elections.
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Like the thing is, if black voters were 88-12 Biden, and they're 10% - 15% of any given poll, you have a wide leeway for screwing up your black sample, maybe even 70-30 Biden doesn't blow up the topline, but 65-35 Biden is probably too far!
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Right. Nitpicking some crosstab weirdness around the margins isnt helpful, but what we're experiencing rn in polling isnt "the numbers are a little odd but shake out in the end," they are pitching us a radically different electorate than what is actually showing up to vote. Seems like a big issue!
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I've said it a million times - you either believe the polls and there's a generational realignment in nonwhite voters, or you believe there's a sampling fuckup. One of these has never happened, and one happens with some regularity, so you know, choose your own adventure.
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here’s the thing: it is easy to believe a sampling fuckup with hard to reach voters (PoC, youth) it is much harder to believe a sampling fuckup with Olds
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It isn’t if it’s the same olds who never picked up the phone to tell us they supported Trump in 16 or 20!
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Sure, but also, we see how >65s are voting rn in elections and its not like how a lot of this polling says they would vote. They're still generally in favor of Republicans! To say that over 65s now support Biden over Trump is to present an argument for November that runs contra to what we've seen.
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I should probs look at that but I don’t think it’s facially implausible that in an election where one side is screaming about age you get some movement above neutral