If the Democrats do push Biden out, I predict there will be no consensus on a replacement candidate, leading to infighting and, ultimately, a realization that the Democrats have a stable full of flawed candidates that cannot gather national support, particularly in a short time window.
if you lean on everyone hard enough and successfully enough, you can get people all-in for Harris as Biden's heir at a convention. (do I bet everything I've got on that as a possibility? I do not.)
to be clear I think Harris is probably a weaker candidate than Biden, especially in the Midwest states, and I haven’t seen anything yet that persuades me otherwise
Here's the question though, does that backup plan limit itself to Biden dropping out of the race before convention, or does he resign the Office so as to confer on Harris more legitimacy and a shot at incumbency bias?
if he can go as candidate then he should, and if at some point in future he can’t, that’s when he should resign in favor of Harris.
unless there’s a decisive electoral advantage, this is the hardest time to pass that baton
Yeah, I was thinking that as well. If Biden truly decides to bow out, over age concerns, it sort of becomes untenable to stay in office while maintaining those concerns aren't valid.
There's something to "I can't get there with you, but Madame President Harris is going to lead the way to-", etc - but we need considerably more evidence that that's the best way to proceed before we do!
I just don't see a scenario where Biden drops out at this stage, while remaining President. If he does concede those voices he's diminished are correct, how could he stay as President? If he drops out just because of political pressure, what does he do if/when pressure intensifies for him to resign?
Yea, politically I just think there’s no way to land “I’m too feeble to be a presidential candidate, but I’m totally fine to keep being President”.
I think people just wouldn’t buy that at all, and would punish the Dem candidate for it
Yea, one small advantage for Harris is that she can create daylight between her and Biden.
Should could create separation on Biden’s exact position on I/P, and take her own position on it, and say she was being a loyal VP.
Really hard to do that as candidate and VP
Most issues she probably doesn’t want or need to create daylight. But on the issues she does, it would be hard if Biden was still running things.
It’s weird, though, because it’d be normal to be VP and candidate if Biden wasn’t running again and she won the primary
