fwiw I don't think this is a particularly likely winning map-- the base case is just that Biden holds the Blue Wall states-- but it's a winning map with either NC or GA
www.270towin.com/maps/omkG8
This election will be played on 2012/2016 battlegrounds -- MI, WI, and PA are all that matter.
Biden is down in all three states right now -- very close in MI and WI, but down fairly big (3%) in PA and trending in the wrong direction.
He either wins all three states and wins or loses one and loses
People sleeping on NC here. He’s never gotten 50% there (both in 2016 and then it was the only state he actually won with less than 50% of the vote in 2020) they have no senate race, and the GOP nominee for governor is an absolute loon
