Raphael Cunha

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Raphael Cunha

@raphaelcunha.bsky.social

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Political scientist at King's College London @kcl.ac.uk | International political economy, politics of international money & finance
https://raphaelcunha.info
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Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 3 days
This is very good, and about as charitable as once can be towards Tyler Cowen.
Avatar Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · 3 days
The Vibes Ain't Nothing But the Vibes. On Tyler Cowen this morning substack.com/app-link/pos...
What Should We Do With Vibes-Based Analysis?substack.com In the end, The Vibes Ain't Nothing But the Vibes.
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Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · 3 days
The Vibes Ain't Nothing But the Vibes. On Tyler Cowen this morning substack.com/app-link/pos...
What Should We Do With Vibes-Based Analysis?substack.com In the end, The Vibes Ain't Nothing But the Vibes.
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 3 days
How Peter Thiel and Silicon Valley funded the sudden rise of JD Vance https://www.ft.com/content/408fb864-5831-4b1d-beef-fd1966b3beed
How Peter Thiel and Silicon Valley funded the sudden rise of JD Vancewww.ft.com Donald Trump’s VP pick was a venture capitalist who has been bankrolled in business and politics by billionaire investor
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Tom Theuns @tomtheuns.bsky.social · 3 days
We’re hiring: Full Professor of International Relations WIDE OPEN sub-field and method @unileiden.bsky.social : Leiden and The Hague Deadline: 30 September, 2024 universiteitleiden.nl/vacatures/20... Please share widely 🙏🙏 Polisky #Academicsky
Full Professor (Universitair Hoogleraar) of International Relationswww.universiteitleiden.nl Full Professor (Universitair Hoogleraar) of International Relations (38 hours a week) What you will doThe Institute of Political Science of Leiden University is looking for candidates for appointment ...
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Bloomberg @bloomberg.com · 4 days
Major Silicon Valley investors from Elon Musk to David Sacks celebrate the news that Donald Trump tapped JD Vance as his running mate
From Elon Musk to David Sacks, Silicon Valley’s Trump Backers Cheer Vance as VP Pickwww.bloomberg.com Major Silicon Valley investors hailed Donald Trump’s choice of Ohio senator and former venture capitalist JD Vance as his running mate, a move that puts the technology industry closer to center stage ...
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 5 days
Silicon Valley’s tech titans line up to donate to Donald Trump https://www.ft.com/content/c1aeef78-590f-4f65-97ff-40f96106254a
Silicon Valley’s tech titans line up to donate to Donald Trumpwww.ft.com America Pac has raised more than $8.7mn from backers including Palantir’s Joe Lonsdale and Sequoia’s Doug Leone
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Raphael Cunha @raphaelcunha.bsky.social · 16 days
Marcos Lisboa: O problema do mercado foi ter acreditado no Brasil @folha.com “O mundo é bem mais complicado do que o lugar comum: ‘os mercados ganham dinheiro com juros altos’. Até agora, deu errado a aposta de fundos multimercado de que o Brasil melhoraria.”
www1.folha.uol.com.br
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 16 days
Live news: Brazilian police recommend more criminal charges against ex-president Jair Bolsonaro https://www.ft.com/content/4d8b7e45-6d2b-442c-987c-eb8d29940d8c
Live news: Brazilian police recommend more criminal charges against ex-president Jair Bolsonarowww.ft.com News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
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Raphael Cunha @raphaelcunha.bsky.social · 16 days
I’m only now catching up to some @heatmap.news reading, and this by @jeremywallace.bsky.social is excellent. #ipesky
More Clean Energy Is Good, Even If It Comes From Chinaheatmap.news The bright side of Chinese “overinvestment” in clean technology.
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Kai Arzheimer @kaiarzheimer.bsky.social · 1 mo
I’m not normally into ethnography & critical theory, but this PhD student’s account of her journey aboard a vast container ship is well worth your time (which you would otherwise spend doomscrolling) https://thedisorderofthings.com/2015/01/05/the-slow-boat-to-china/
The Slow Boat to Chinathedisorderofthings.com The following post is the first in a series of oceanic dispatches from Disorder member Charmaine Chua. She is currently on a 46-day journey on board a 100,000 ton Evergreen container ship starting in ...
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David Marshall @illdave.bsky.social · 1 mo
I can't remember a tech campaign this relentless.
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 1 mo
French stocks head for worst week since 2022 over fears of far-right election win https://www.ft.com/content/b9fdc199-0bfc-47f2-9356-86b2fd295e26
French stocks head for worst week since 2022 over fears of far-right election winwww.ft.com Cac 40 index has dropped more than 5% after Emmanuel Macron called snap vote, while euro is down against dollar
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Jeff Colgan @jeffcolgan.bsky.social · 1 mo
One of the most amazing market failures of our lifetime: despite climate experts warning the insurance industry for years and years, they just refused to take the issue seriously. A metaphor. 🌎💡polisky Swiss Re says industry failed to estimate impact of extreme weather on.ft.com/3RpdFRC
Swiss Re says industry failed to estimate impact of extreme weatheron.ft.com Global insured losses from natural catastrophes exceeded $100bn for fourth consecutive year in 2023
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Raphael Cunha @raphaelcunha.bsky.social · 1 mo
Very cool Planet Money episode about the nitty-gritty of how a new industry is created (US graphite industry in this case).
Bringing a tariff to a graphite fight : Planet Moneywww.npr.org Graphite is sort of the one-hit wonder of minerals. And that hit? Pencils. Everyone loves to talk about pencils when it comes to graphite. If graphite were to perform a concert, they'd close out the s...
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Raphael Cunha @raphaelcunha.bsky.social · 1 mo
King's College London is hiring a Lecturer (Assistant Prof.) with a focus on authoritarianism, populism, democracy, human rights, political communication, transitional justice. #polisky #cpesky #PSJMInfo
Lecturer in International Development (Politics)www.kcl.ac.uk
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Stephanie Rickard @sjrickard.bsky.social · 1 mo
European Parliament elections 101. A very basic intro from me: www.youtube.com/watch?v=coHk... For more in-depth analysis, check out Martin Sandbu's FT article at: www.ft.com/content/2253... We agree the biggest consequences of the EP elections will likely be for green environment policies.
What's at stake in the upcoming EU elections | LSE Global Politicswww.youtube.com In the recent years, more and more right-wing parties have appeared in politics in European countries and across the world. Ahead of the European Parliament ...
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Chris Messina @chrismessina.me · 1 mo
News for nerds! ActivityPub 🤝🏻 ATProto Congrats @snarfed.org!
Bluesky and Mastodon users can now talk to each other with Bridgy Fed | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com Bridgy Fed is one of the efforts aimed at connecting the fediverse with the web, Bluesky and, perhaps later, other networks like Nostr.
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Raphael Cunha @raphaelcunha.bsky.social · 1 mo
"For Adani the one-day impact of an underwhelming election win for Modi’s party was worse than a serious short-seller attack. The Indian tycoon’s wealth collapsed by $25 billion on Tuesday. Every part of his Adani Group sold off, wiping out almost $45 billion in market value in a one-day shock."
Chartbook 290 The markets and democratic surprise - India, Mexico, South Africaadamtooze.substack.com Three big elections in countries that investment analysts like to call “emerging markets” - South Africa, India Mexico. Three significant outcomes. How do the markets react? South Africa Hard as it wa...
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Miles Kellerman @mileskellerman.bsky.social · 1 mo
"...foreign multinationals’ profits in Ireland have soared from around 40 billion dollars per year ten years ago to over 180 billion dollars per year today and now constitute roughly 70 percent of Ireland’s real domestic economy." www.foreignaffairs.com/china/global...
The Dangerous Myth of Deglobalizationwww.foreignaffairs.com Misperceptions of the global economy are driving bad policies.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 2 mo
New working paper with Brennen Fagan and Stijn van Weezel. Conflict researchers have been misled by underpowered tests which purportedly refute the decline-of-war thesis. @ldfreedman.bsky.social @chrisblattman.bsky.social polisky conflictsky pure.royalholloway.ac.uk/en/publicati...
Underpowered Power Law Research and the Decline-of-War Questionpure.royalholloway.ac.uk
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Andrew Mercer @awmercer.bsky.social · 2 mo
Yeah, this is pretty much it for me wrt chrome.
Avatar hammancheez @hammancheez.bsky.social · 2 mo
Firefox 4 lyfe
Google Chrome’s plan to limit ad blocking extensions kicks off next weekarstechnica.com Chrome's Manifest V3 transition is here. First up are warnings for any V2 extensions.
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Kieran Healy @kjhealy.bsky.social · 2 mo
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Kai Thaler @kaimthaler.bsky.social · 2 mo
Posting from Jan Vogler: Aarhus University's call for polisci assistant & associate professorships is out, with deadlines in August (Aug 15 for assistant positions & Aug 29 for associate). Assistant Prof link here & will post Associate Prof link in reply. polisky psjminfo www.au.dk/om/stillinge...
Assistant Professor in Political Science - Ledig stilling på Aarhus Universitetwww.au.dk Ledig stilling ved Institut for Statskundskab, Aarhus Universitet
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Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 2 mo
Check out the marginaleffects.com website re-design. 30 free chapters of tutorials and case studies on how to interpret your statistical models in R and Python. Now with cute illustrations!
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Raphael Cunha @raphaelcunha.bsky.social · 2 mo
#ipesky #polisky #PSJMInfo
Avatar Hannes Baumann @hannesbaumann.bsky.social · 2 mo
Two politics/IR lectureships at the University of Liverpool. Open to all but we particularly encourage applications in some areas listed in the ad, including international political economy. www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DHY234/l...
Lectureship in Politics/International Relations - Grade 7 at University of Liverpoolwww.jobs.ac.uk Apply now for the Lectureship in Politics/International Relations - Grade 7 role on jobs.ac.uk - the leading job board for higher education jobs. View details.
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Raphael Cunha @raphaelcunha.bsky.social · 2 mo
"counties [that] depended on industries vulnerable to NAFTA suffered large and persistent employment losses.. Voters in these counties.. turned away from the party of President Clinton.. This shift is larger for whites (especially men and those without a college degree) and social conservatives"
Local Economic and Political Effects of Trade Deals: Evidence from NAFTAwww.aeaweb.org (June 2024) - Why have white, less-educated voters left the Democratic Party? We highlight the role of the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In event-study analysis, we demonstrate tha...
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Raphael Cunha @raphaelcunha.bsky.social · 2 mo
"For 30 years the country has been ... a “dominant-party system” – institutionally robustly democratic and competitive at the local level, but hegemonic at the national level. ... there is a very good chance that this will be the first time the ANC loses its majority in parliament."
2024: The election that could redefine South Africa's politicsgoodauthority.org South Africa's politics has been dominated by the ANC for three decades. Will the May 2024 elections change that?
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Raphael Cunha @raphaelcunha.bsky.social · 2 mo
"... people are not good at articulating the reasons for their choices. So they may say – and honestly feel! – that an issue is important. But when they say that, they are not revealing that this issue will affect how they vote."
What voters say is important doesn’t actually affect their votegoodauthority.org Pollsters have ways to ask voters what issues are most important. But identifying what actually matters at the ballot box isn't that simple.
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Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 2 mo
Why did Rishi Sunak gamble on an election in July? Alastair Smith, who wrote the polisky book on election timing, explains at @goodauth.bsky.social. goodauthority.org/news/rishi-s...
Why Rishi Sunak is gambling on an early U.K. general electiongoodauthority.org Will British voters see Sunak's decision to call a snap election as a sign of fundamental weakness in the U.K. economy?
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Will Wilkinson 🏳️‍🌈 @wlknsn.xyz · 2 mo
There’s something consoling about the fact that the beautiful human impulse to bullshit for lulz can defeat computer.