Micah: Biden's approval has been underwater for a long time at this point, so I'm not surprised that someone who didn't vote in 2020 and is voting now is likely to be a "Biden isn't good and should be replaced" voter there are valid reasons to criticize polling right now but it's consistently pretty bad

calling it now: whenever nate releases the nyt/sienna it's gonna have it neck and neck, probably a smallish trump lead, and that lead is going to be basically entirely from, oh, let's say, a 40 to 50 point shift R among nonwhite 18-29s.

it's Trump +6, up from +3 pre-debate haven't dug into the crosstabs yet, though

Trump Widens Lead After Biden’s Debate Debacle, Times/Siena Poll Findswww.nytimes.com Donald Trump is ahead of President Biden by six percentage points among likely voters in a new national survey. Overall, 74 percent of voters view him as too old for the job, an uptick since the debat...

Yeah - I don't want to unskew the polls, but it is wonky. Biden leads among anyone who voted in 2020, so the gap is entirely people who skipped 2020.

Biden's approval has been underwater for a long time at this point, so I'm not surprised that someone who didn't vote in 2020 and is voting now is likely to be a "Biden isn't good and should be replaced" voter there are valid reasons to criticize polling right now but it's consistently pretty bad

That's plausible! But I think a lot of them are likely to not vote again.

Post