calling it now: whenever nate releases the nyt/sienna it's gonna have it neck and neck, probably a smallish trump lead, and that lead is going to be basically entirely from, oh, let's say, a 40 to 50 point shift R among nonwhite 18-29s.
I keep coming back to my belief that the as-yet undecided voters in this election are so divorced from predictable evidence-based decision processes as to be stochastic fools. We can try to do X or Y thing, but who knows what random idea will pop into their brain on Election day!
I think "look they gave us a new younger candidate!" "Look at them pushing out that nice old man!" and "wow they're sure in chaos over there replacing their candidate, not sure we should trust them" are basically equally likely, along with god knows how many other weird ideas
