It's Election Day in France!
The 1st round of the parliamentary elections Macron called just 3 weeks ago.
Last polls close at 8pm local time (2pm ET). Exit polls, estimates, first results will drop immediately; so buckle up, follow this space.
What to watch?
1. Simplest answer: Who makes runoff in each of the 577 districts?
There are 3 major blocs (left, Macron, far-right), plus conservatives strong some places, & NOT room for everyone.
But also: 2. How high is turnout? Higher turnout, the more there'll be 3-way runoffs—not 2-ways.
3. How high is the far-right today? Polls suggest they've ⬆️; they can't win a majority today (runoffs are next week), but we'll know how likely that's looking.
4. Relatedly, of course, how high is the left? How high is Macron bloc—enough to avoid being eliminated many places?
5. Most important Q: What'll be Macron & allies' approach to runoffs from which they're absent, AND runoffs they've in but only in 3rd place?
Where this happens to Left, Left is likely to help Macronists and/or drop out of runoff to block far-right. No such sign yet from Macron.
Besides the possibility of 3-way runoffs, is historically high turnout a good sign of voters coming out to stop NR? Or is it (gulp) a sign of the opposite?
We will know, of course, when we see the results. But polls projected historically high turnout -- but not in a way that seems like the product of one camp over another turning out. Overall mobilization.
Thanks! I guess we wait with bated breath…
While in Montreal this week, I saw tons of signs with slogans like, “Les fachos votent, et vous? Votez NFP.” Hoping that sentiment extends to metropole!
