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It's Election Day in France! The 1st round of the parliamentary elections Macron called just 3 weeks ago. Last polls close at 8pm local time (2pm ET). Exit polls, estimates, first results will drop immediately; so buckle up, follow this space. What to watch?
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1. Simplest answer: Who makes runoff in each of the 577 districts? There are 3 major blocs (left, Macron, far-right), plus conservatives strong some places, & NOT room for everyone. But also: 2. How high is turnout? Higher turnout, the more there'll be 3-way runoffs—not 2-ways.
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Besides the possibility of 3-way runoffs, is historically high turnout a good sign of voters coming out to stop NR? Or is it (gulp) a sign of the opposite?
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We will know, of course, when we see the results. But polls projected historically high turnout -- but not in a way that seems like the product of one camp over another turning out. Overall mobilization.
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Thanks! I guess we wait with bated breath… While in Montreal this week, I saw tons of signs with slogans like, “Les fachos votent, et vous? Votez NFP.” Hoping that sentiment extends to metropole!