That’s Too Much, Colby: I’m not saying that these polls are right and I’m certainly not gonna predict what’s going to happen, but I am going to suggest that many of us on here marinate in an information stew that it very different from what swing state voters are getting right now.

I’m not saying that these polls are right and I’m certainly not gonna predict what’s going to happen, but I am going to suggest that many of us on here marinate in an information stew that it very different from what swing state voters are getting right now.

I mean: if we’re in safe states and we’re highly online, we’re pretty much only seeing the media storm over Biden’s age and a smattering of coverage of Project 2025.

But if you’re in a swing state, you are also seeing a TON of Biden ads and basically NO pro-Trump messages.

I dont know if this will make a difference. Eventually, Trump will go on the air in the swing states. But it’s something to remember.

weird response issues (differential response and then also weirdos are the only ones who pick up their phones and thus may not be representative politically of the voting population) continues to be my bugaboo about all the polls

It’s a legit issue! I think the polls are less reliable than ever this year. And it goes both ways- it could mean that Trump has a monster lead!

But when the pollsters tell us which groups they’re having the most trouble contacting- young people and POCs, basically- I think there might be a ton of upside to that uncertainty.

Yeah, i agree -- there are a bunch of reasons to think the error bars are really wide this cycle. It's also not much of a salve to hope that the polls are sort of systematically wrong. It could be true (and i kinda think it is) but imo we don't have lots of evidence that its necessarily true.

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