Buttadeus: Like, the default here is that the polls are basically right. Maybe wonky deep in the crosstabs because of small sample sizes, but when you combine multiple polls, well, there's definitely enough of a sample to make statistical predictions.

a floppy haired guy named nate, who unfortunately runs a lot of the pollcels of the democratic party, has consistently predicted that nonwhite 18-29s have swung R+40 in four years, and we're all living in the discourse he has created

call it cope, call it unskewing, whatever. that's what nate says is gonna happen. nate says that Black voters have swung R+40 since 2020. you can believe him or not.

It's definitely cope, but it may pay off.

Like, the default here is that the polls are basically right. Maybe wonky deep in the crosstabs because of small sample sizes, but when you combine multiple polls, well, there's definitely enough of a sample to make statistical predictions.

2022 polling shows some warts, so that's something. Fetterman's polling average was -0.5%, he won by just under 5%, which is pretty big error!

But it's not universal; NC-SEN polled at R+5, finished as R+3. OH-SEN was R+7%, came out R+6%. Etc.

I literally cannot imagine a poll reporting a 35 point shift in the Black vote having any bearing on at least that part of the electorate. It's garbage! And it calls into question the rest of the poll as well. If I were doing poll aggregation modeling I might give this not a low weight but zero.

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