a floppy haired guy named nate, who unfortunately runs a lot of the pollcels of the democratic party, has consistently predicted that nonwhite 18-29s have swung R+40 in four years, and we're all living in the discourse he has created
call it cope, call it unskewing, whatever. that's what nate says is gonna happen. nate says that Black voters have swung R+40 since 2020. you can believe him or not.
i don't think that polling is going to end up where it is, but I have seen cross tabs from dem pollsters that would shock and horrify you. it's not entirely made up.
I think the safest bet is that the crosstabs are wrong but the headline result is probably approximately accurate--the tricks pollsters are using to get the right headline number are making their crosstabs weird as fuck.
I am willing to believe that swing is
1. not a statistical mirage and
2. concerning
but R+40 is the kind of number that makes me want to double-check my work and get a second set of eyes on it to verify my methodology.
Like, the default here is that the polls are basically right. Maybe wonky deep in the crosstabs because of small sample sizes, but when you combine multiple polls, well, there's definitely enough of a sample to make statistical predictions.
I literally cannot imagine a poll reporting a 35 point shift in the Black vote having any bearing on at least that part of the electorate. It's garbage! And it calls into question the rest of the poll as well.
If I were doing poll aggregation modeling I might give this not a low weight but zero.
Do we have numbers showing a gradual shift that direction in, say, the 2022 midterms?
*presses finger to earpiece* wait, wait, I'm getting news
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
These things are based on how people “feel”. Not stats. Social media and the MSM have convinced them that they are much worse off than they actually are. Unemployment is not through the roof, there aren’t 15 million “illegal aliens” trying to steal their job and kill their family.
I’m reminded of that one panel-based tracking poll in 2016 that would shift several points depending on whether one person (a 19-year-old black conservative from Chicago) was in the sample or not that day
I did a poll and it ends up people are very mad that they gave covid vaccines to black people and that they don't admit that COVID was created in a lab in China
What were the actual non-white results like in the midterms relative to the polling? Is that a thing that's easy to look up, because I have failed but might just not know the keywords.
I just can't see how anyone would get enough representative data to make a prediction for that age range outside of trolls and partisans. Even the most optimistic view of the numbers shouldn't allow for that when those are also among the least likely to vote demographics. pull the other one silver
