This is exactly where I’ve been for the past few days—though I had a helpful conversation with someone here last night that reassured me that a switch from Biden to Harris presents as many opportunities as risks. So I’m feeling a little better about the world today.
Not that anyone is asking me, but I have no idea what the Democrats should do right now. All the options seem bad, and there isn’t one that seems less bad than the others. And as a professional opinion-haver, it’s disorienting to have no strong opinion about something so enormously consequential.
"What if Biden withdraws and it's a huge mistake?" is a legit case for him staying in. My feeling is that the odds against him are now so steep and the condition that has created those steep odds so impossible to change that even the shock of a new candidate is now a better bet. But it's a big risk!
This is exactly where I'm at. And if he does step down, that'll be powerful confirmation that the folks who know him best, with the most invested in him winning, have concluded he's a lost cause.
In other words, the chances of him stepping down if he has a serious path to victory are basically zero.
For any replacement candidate to pose a serious challenge to Trump, the party would have to very swiftly unite firmly behind them, and that makes me really nervous. An open convention would be chaotic and I’m not confident of the party’s ability to cast Harris as a unity candidate.
I absolutely agree that Harris will be nominee if Biden isn’t. I’m concerned that the inevitable brinksmanship around Biden withdrawing will diminish enthusiasm among the Dem base and make turnout a problem.
My sense is that if we see him step aside soon—in the next two or three weeks, with Harris anointed as successor immediately—the transition will be pretty smooth. If we don’t, things will get weird and stay weird whether he goes or stays.
How would they overcome the little problem of the filling deadline having passed in many states? If they declare a new candidate who can't be on the presidential ballot...
