Mick Ryan: Russia may still have a couple of months where they can conduct offensive activities before they culminate. But, they appear to have blown what might have been its last chance to strike a decisive blow against #Ukraine in this war. My latest at Futura Doctrina. mickryan.substack.com/p/has-russia...

Russia may still have a couple of months where they can conduct offensive activities before they culminate. But, they appear to have blown what might have been its last chance to strike a decisive blow against #Ukraine in this war. My latest at Futura Doctrina. mickryan.substack.com/p/has-russia...

Has Russia Blown its 2024 Opportunity in Ukraine?mickryan.substack.com Russia may never get an another opportunity like the past six months. An updated assessment of Russia’s 2024 offensives.

There is hope for a better future.

Absolutely!

any sense of how long it is before Russia runs out of armor or air defense?

I don’t know, I think it’s best to assume that hardware never runs out. 11% of the earth’s land and 7.5% of Russia’s GDP is building war machines. And sending a college stadium every month to the meat grinder.

When does combat effectiveness break? Similar question but I’m trying to include will to fight. I have a bias that maintain vehicles is easier than moral. I think Ru payments to Ru families for service in Ukraine is as important as T-64’s.

This is an excellent discussion. Thank you for the opportunity to read it.

Waiting for that tipping point sir. 🫡

It's not on a decisive blow that Russia is betting now , but on exhausting Ukraine's resources (which is happening) and political change in the West (which is imminent). To try to turn the tide, Ukraine would need a national government (war cabinet). With the current leadership, it's hopeless.

And it might be as in WWI: THey saw this is their last chance of striking a decisive blow before Western deliveries of munitions, arms and spare parts will definitely turn the table in favor of Ukraine.

They still can mobilize 20 million people. Stalin never hesitated.

Putin is not Stalin. He calculates that constant pressure on Ukraine, exhausting her resources & infrastructure would be a smarter strategy, combined with expected political shift in the West. 👇

PS. Stalin, btw, could rely on massive US support. Putin, on limited China's only. Given that, u don't easily send 20 m into the grinder

bsky.app/profile/noel...

Chinese and Russian companies are developing an attack drone similar to an Iranian model deployed in Ukraine, a sign that Beijing may be edging closer to providing the sort of lethal aid that western officials have warned against. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

US Allies Allege China Is Developing Attack Drones for Russiawww.bloomberg.com Chinese and Russian companies are developing an attack drone similar to an Iranian model deployed in Ukraine, European officials familiar with the matter said, a sign that Beijing may be edging closer...

All this is correct. Nevertheless the North Korea, Iran and China support are larger than thought. Chinese electronics present in lots of recently produced missiles. And weapon factories are priority in his economy. His ego wouldn't suffer 10 million deaths, but defeat yes.

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