The extreme, very long duration,& record-breaking heatwave across interior CA & broader Southwest will finally recede this wknd, w/substantial relief in most places (though temps will still remain above avg). But another major heatwave is already on horizon... #CAwx#CAfire [1/3]
There is ensemble agreement, once again, that extreme and possibly record-breaking heat could return to the SW by late July. This heatwave might be focused more squarely on SoCal/Central CA, but will still be anomalously hot nearly West-wide. #CAwx#CAfire [2/3]
Monsoonal moisture surge now clearly visible across SoCal in form of widespread mid and upper-level cloudiness. There will be a risk of thunderstorms, some containing dry lightning, across (mainly mountainous) interior portions of SoCal and NorCal next 48 hrs. #CAwx#CAfire [1/2]
The prolonged & intense Western U.S. heatwave continues. Last 2 weeks are now warmest late June through early July period on record across most of California (including some coastal areas), much of Arizona, parts of Nevada, and western Oregon. #CAwx#AZwx#NVwx#ORwx [1/2]
As I discussed before this well-predicted event began, overnight temps have been especially anomalous. Much of the sustained record warmth has been driven by remarkable overnight warmth, though daytime temps have also been very hot & record-breaking in many spots. #CAwx [2/2]
There will be a modest incursion of monsoonal moisture from SE this weekend across CA. Most likely outcome is some isolated/scattered Sierra Nevada t-storms w/mid/high-level clouds elsewhere, but always worth watching re: (slight) dry lightning potential elsewhere. #CAwx#CAfire
Many fires erupting across northern CAtoday amid Red Flag conditions at the beginning of what may become a historically severe/long heatwave. Most immediately threatening fire appears to be #ThompsonFire near Oroville. Mandatory evacs now for portions of Oroville proper. #CAwx
Early signs of potentially major heatwave around 4th of July centered on Northern CA, and this event could bring hot temperatures all the way to the coast (uncommon for early Jul). Early hints at potential for some record-breaking heat & very high grass/brush fire risk. #CAwx
Quite a bit of cloud-to-ground lightning activity at present with elevated t-storm cells across San Joaquin Valley heading into Sierra foothills. Not much ignition potential in irrigated farmland, but could see some fire starts in grass/brush in foothills. #CAwx#CAfire
Remnant moisture from former TS Alberto has indeed ended up generating a few scattered t-storms along Central CA coast. While widespread lightning not expected, isolated C-G strikes from cells containing little/no rain could potentially cause a few fire starts. #CAwx#CAfire
Remnant moisture and "spin" (vorticity) from former Tropical Storm Alberto has brought a litany of unusual weather (early-season rain, severe t-storms, flash floods, and a major dust storm/haboob) to TX, NM, AZ, and northern MX over the past 3 days. #CAwx#TXwx#NMwx#AZwx
1/3
Wildfire season across interior Southwest kicking into high gear, w/multiple large smoke plumes readily apparent following Red Flag conditions & amid moderate to severe drought. #SouthForkFire/#SaltFire in/near Ruidoso have burned structures & forced mass evacuations. #NMwx#AZwx
Smoke plumes from three active grass/brush fires in NorCal are visible on weather radar this PM. These wind-driven fires are putting out a fair bit of smoke, as well as some shallow pyrocumulus clouds at times. #AeroFire near Copperopolis presently of most concern. #CAfire#CAwx
Multiple new fires popping up today precisely where you'd expect given the conditions: in primarily grass and brush in the foothills ringing the Sacramento Valley, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect. #SitesFire#DouglasFire#AeroFire.
Two primary wildfires of interest right now in CA are #PointFire (near Healdsburg) and #PostFire near Gorman. Both remain highly active & are burning in primarily brush/grass (& smaller-scale evac orders w/both). Will discuss tomorrow during YouTube office hours. #CAwx#CAfire
Recent fire weather forecasts and warnings are coming to fruition as multiple significant wildfires pop up from SF North Bay area southward to SoCal interior. Each red circle depicts a "hotspot" on satellite imagery associated w/an active wildfire as of this post. #CAwx#CAfire
#PointFire now likely well in excess of 100 acres and there are also some (limited scope) mandatory evacuations orders now in effect. With continued gusty winds and fairly low humidity into tomorrow, this will be one to watch. #CAwx#CAfire
#PointFire in Sonoma Co. (100+ acres west of Healdsburg) is looking quite active this afternoon as winds increase & humidity decreases. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for Sacramento Valley and surrounding foothills (including North Bay hills) for tonight and/or Mon.#CAwx#CAfire
Visually spectacular "sculpted" supercell thunderstorm near Woodrow on high plains of eastern Colorado earlier today (6/8/24). This storm featured a blue-green & ground-scraping shelf cloud (& dust storm beneath) so wide I could not fully capture even with wide angle lens! #COwx
Widespread major heat, highly unusual for early June, will expand across most of Western U.S. in coming days (minus some coastal areas). Record breaking high temps most likely Thu and Fri, but may persist in some areas for over a week. #CAwx#NVwx#ORwx#WAwx#IDwx [1/2]
In addition to record daytime warmth in some areas, even more locations will record-breaking overnight warmth, with widespread "record high minimum" temperatures during this prolonged event, including at higher elevations. #CAwx#NVwx#ORwx#WAwx#IDwx [2/2]
Rather strong inter-model ensemble agreement at the moment regarding the growing possibility of a significant and potentially prolonged heatwave across most of the Western U.S. starting around Jun 5-6 as strong/broad ridge builds. Details TBD. #CAwx#CAfire
Observed precip and temp anomalies along U.S. West Coast past ~90 days are starting to look pretty classically "strong #ElNino"-like (very wet SoCal & comparatively dry PacNW), with a #ClimateChange twist: it has been much warmer than avg overall almost everywhere. #CAwx#CAwater
As discussed in my live YouTube office hours, ECMWF ensemble and others have backed off slightly from dramatic SoCal rainfall predictions from yesterday. Still very heavy precip in forecast & *widespread/significant flood risk*, but plausible worst case less extreme. #CAwx
Ensembles continue to suggest strong signal for *very* heavy rain with Sun-Tue storm across SoCal. Latest runs have decreased risk of major windstorm for SF Bay Area Sunday but have *further* ramped up already major potential flood risk across SoCal Sun-Tue. #CAwx#CAwater [1/2]
This will still be a very significant storm for Central Coast and much of SoCal, with potential for very strong winds from central SF Bay Area southward to western Santa Barbara County and locally significant flood risk from Santa Cruz Mountains south to San Diego Sun-Tue. #CAwx
Ensembles continue to suggest strong signal for *very* heavy rain with Sun-Tue storm across SoCal. Latest runs have decreased risk of major windstorm for SF Bay Area Sunday but have *further* ramped up already major potential flood risk across SoCal Sun-Tue. #CAwx#CAwater [1/2]
The initial strong Pacific jet extension will eventually transition toward wavy pattern w/Rossby wave breaking...but overall, this will be a very favorable pattern for CA storms (warm ones initially, then a mix of warmer and colder ones thereafter) next 2-3 wks. #CAwx#CAwater
Like the children of Lake Wobegone, upper-level geopotential heights are going to be...(essentially) all above average this winter. Why? Mainly #GlobalWarming, which increases avg. temperature of troposphere. A strong #ElNino's helping out this year, too, especially in tropics.
