Daniel Swain

@weatherwest.bsky.social

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Climate scientist-communicator focused on extreme events like floods, droughts, & wildfires on a warming planet.

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Live virtual office hour: Wed, Jul 17 @ 4pm PT. I'll discuss recent record-breaking heatwave across U.S. SW, plus ongoing lightning/wildfire outbreak that has followed. Plus, w/yet another heatwave on horizon, what might rest of season hold? #CAwx #CAfire www.youtube.com/live...#CAwx #CAfire www.youtube.com/live...

Weather and climate office hours by Weather West: 07/17/2024 - YouTubewww.youtube.com The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain on various topics related to extreme weather and c...

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Daniel Swain

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Daniel Swain

Finally: This year I am working to scale up my YouTube channel and the live & interactive "office hours" sessions I now host there regularly on a very wide range of weather, climate, wildfire, and "newsy" Earth science-related topics. Check it out! www.youtube.com/@wea... 4/4

Weather West - YouTubewww.youtube.com Home of Dr. Daniel Swain's Weather West channel, which features interactive discussion of weather, climate, and climate change (with a particular focus on th...

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Daniel Swain

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Daniel Swain

However, I do think this "top down" posting approach facilitated by Fedica is a *much* better option than manual cross-posting I attempted for past 1.5 years. You will see all of my original content directly, & un-garbled, on each platform. Woo! 3/4

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Daniel Swain

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Daniel Swain

I am still most active in responding to comments & engaging w/community via Twitter/X & on my own Weather West blog, though I do check in elsewhere. It's simply not possible to be equally active w/replies/re-shares everywhere now that social communities are widely fragmented. 2/4

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Daniel Swain

I am now directly posting all "top down" content (i.e., content that isn't a reply or re-share on a specific platform) on Twitter/X, Bluesky, Mastodon, & Threads via Fedica! (Unfortunately animated large gifs/images still won't work via Bluesky; fingers crossed that changes!) 1/4

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Daniel Swain

Attending the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting in Dec. 2024? Then please consider submitting an abstract to our session: Hydroclimate and Extremes in the Western United States in a Changing Climate (primary convener: Wei Zhang)! #AGU24 agu.confex.com/agu/a...#AGU24 agu.confex.com/agu/a...

Hydroclimate and Extremes in the Western United States in a Changing Climateagu.confex.com The western United States is particularly susceptible to adverse impacts from a wide range of hydroclimate events including droughts, floods, heat waves, fire weather extremes, and compounding extremes resulting from different hydroclimate hazards occurring concurrently or in sequence. Anthropogenic forcing can shape such risks by altering temperature, precipitation, and humidity in ways that modify vapor pressure deficit, evapotranspiration, precipitation phases and intensity, and snowpack. It is thus crucial to advance the fundamental knowledge of drivers of hydroclimatic processes and extremes under the present and future climates in this region. This session focuses on recent advancements in understanding hydroclimate and related extremes/hazards in the western United States under the present and future climates. Abstracts focused on physical processes, observations, numerical modeling, and societal/environmental impact analysisâparticularly those examining droughts, floods, snowpack, atmosphere-land interactions as well as the role of temperature, precipitation, and humidity in driving hydroclimatic processesâare welcome.

Weather and climate office hours by Weather West: 07/13/2024 @1pm PT (today!). In this short-notice "pop-up" session, I'll discuss unfolding lightning/wildfire outbreak across CA & West following record heat. #CAwx #CAfire www.youtube.com/live...#CAwx #CAfire www.youtube.com/live...

Weather and climate office hours by Weather West: 07/13/2024 pop-up edition - YouTubewww.youtube.com The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain on various topics related to extreme weather and c...

The extreme, very long duration,& record-breaking heatwave across interior CA & broader Southwest will finally recede this wknd, w/substantial relief in most places (though temps will still remain above avg). But another major heatwave is already on horizon... #CAwx #CAfire [1/3]

There is ensemble agreement, once again, that extreme and possibly record-breaking heat could return to the SW by late July. This heatwave might be focused more squarely on SoCal/Central CA, but will still be anomalously hot nearly West-wide. #CAwx #CAfire [2/3]

Since this potential late July severe heat event is still relatively far in the future, the forecast is less certain and could change. But this would end up leading to hottest July on record in many places, plus a continued ramping up of wildfire activity. #CAwx #CAfire [3/3]

Monsoonal moisture surge now clearly visible across SoCal in form of widespread mid and upper-level cloudiness. There will be a risk of thunderstorms, some containing dry lightning, across (mainly mountainous) interior portions of SoCal and NorCal next 48 hrs. #CAwx #CAfire [1/2]

There is some mid-level instability, though no obvious "trigger" for convection (elevated t-storms) other than topography. However, such set-ups can occasionally generate high-based t-storms over lowlands anyway, so ~10% of lightning elsewhere this wknd. #CAwx #CAfire [2/3]

Given recent/ongoing long-duration and record-breaking heatwave across the U.S. Southwest, any dry lightning will have a fairly high chance of igniting a wildfire. This is most likely in far northern/eastern CA/western NV, but possible elsewhere. #CAwx #CAfire [3/3]

The prolonged & intense Western U.S. heatwave continues. Last 2 weeks are now warmest late June through early July period on record across most of California (including some coastal areas), much of Arizona, parts of Nevada, and western Oregon. #CAwx #AZwx #NVwx #ORwx [1/2]

As I discussed before this well-predicted event began, overnight temps have been especially anomalous. Much of the sustained record warmth has been driven by remarkable overnight warmth, though daytime temps have also been very hot & record-breaking in many spots. #CAwx [2/2]

There will be a modest incursion of monsoonal moisture from SE this weekend across CA. Most likely outcome is some isolated/scattered Sierra Nevada t-storms w/mid/high-level clouds elsewhere, but always worth watching re: (slight) dry lightning potential elsewhere. #CAwx #CAfire

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Kelly Hereid

Just just submitted a revised review paper on "hydroclimate whiplash on a warming Earth," which includes some new global-scale analysis. Suffice it to say for now: this kind of response to climate warming will not be isolated to specific regions. Review will hopefully be out later in 2024!

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Weather and climate office hours by Weather West: Weekend edition. I'll discuss the ongoing prolonged and in some cases record-breaking heat across much of the West as well as unfolding wildfire situation. 3pm PT, Saturday 07/06/2024. #CAwx #CAfire www.youtube.com/live...#CAwx #CAfire www.youtube.com/live...

Weather and climate office hours by Weather West: 07/06/2024 - YouTubewww.youtube.com The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain on various topics related to extreme weather and c...

This *gesturing wildly and in every direction* is utterly exhausting.

Many fires erupting across northern CAtoday amid Red Flag conditions at the beginning of what may become a historically severe/long heatwave. Most immediately threatening fire appears to be #ThompsonFire near Oroville. Mandatory evacs now for portions of Oroville proper. #CAwx

Pop-up livestream: today (07/02/2024) @ 5:30pm PT to discuss unfolding (and likely historic) heatwave across California and Oregon, as well as rapidly escalating wildfire risk. I may have additional such pop-ups later this week. #CAwx #CAfire www.youtube.com/live...#CAwx #CAfire www.youtube.com/live...

Weather and climate office hours by Weather West: Pop-up session, 07/02/2024 - YouTubewww.youtube.com The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain on various topics related to extreme weather and c...

If anything, this heatwave has trended even a bit *hotter* & *longer* in duration than ensemble guidance indicated yesterday. It's possible that inland areas may see little relief for next *10 days.* Check out this WW post; I'll also have live YouTube session @ 2pm.#CAwx #CAfire

New Weather West post: Long-duration and in some cases record-breaking heatwave across much of CA in early July. Significant fire weather concerns across parts of CA this week, esp. given overlap w/July 4th fireworks & associated ignitions. #CAwx #CAfire weatherwest.com/arch...#CAwx #CAfire weatherwest.com/arch...

Long-duration and in some cases record-breaking heatwave across much of CA in early July - Weather Westweatherwest.com June ended up being a very warm (and warmer than expected) month in CA except at immediate coast June was...well, a pretty toasty one across most of the Southwest (unless you happen to live close to the immediate Pacific coast!). In fact, across a large portion of the interior Southwest (including some desert and mountain

New in International Journal of Wildland Fire:"Future fire events are likely to be worse than #climate projections indicate" (M. Peace & L. McCaw). Discussion includes increased fire-atmosphere coupling, pyroconvection, & nonlinear vegetation response. www.publish.csiro.au...#climate projections indicate" (M. Peace & L. McCaw). Discussion includes increased fire-atmosphere coupling, pyroconvection, & nonlinear vegetation response. www.publish.csiro.au... 1/2

Future fire events are likely to be worse than climate projections indicate – these are some of the reasons whywww.publish.csiro.au Background Climate projections signal longer fire seasons and an increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days for much of the world including Australia.Aims Here we argue that heatwaves, dynamic fire–atmosphere interactions and increased fuel availability caused by drought will amplify potential fire behaviour well beyond projections based on calculations of afternoon forest fire danger derived from climate models.Methods We review meteorological dynamics contributing to enhanced fire behaviour during heatwaves, drawing on examples of dynamical processes driving fire behaviour during the Australian Black Summer bushfires of 2019–20.Results Key dynamical processes identified include: nocturnal low-level jets, deep, unstable planetary boundary layers and fire–atmosphere coupling.Conclusions The future scenario we contend is long windows of multi-day fire events where overnight suppression is less effective and fire perimeters will expand continuously and aggressively over multiple days and nights.Implications Greater overnight fire activity and multi-day events present strategic and tactical challenges for fire management agencies including having to expand resourcing for overnight work, manage personnel fatigue and revise training to identify conditions conducive to unusually active fire behaviour overnight. Effective messaging will be critical to minimise accidental fire ignition during heatwaves and to alert the community to the changing fire environment

This paper will likely be of interest to #wildfire scientists, fire weather meteorologists, and #climate scientists--as well as operational fire folks working "on the ground" or "in the air." I found several of the hypotheses posed here quite compelling... cc @nplareau 2/2

Reply to

Annelise

Thank you!

I'll be discussing the upcoming major CA heatwave/fire weather event in more detail in a new Weather West blog post Sat or Sun, and in a YouTube live session @ 2pm PT Mon (as well as a possible additional session later in the week). #CAwx #CAfire

A major and potentially record-breaking heatwave will unfold over the 4th of July holiday next week in California. In this session, I'll discuss heatwave, escalating ildfire risk, and more. Join me live @ 2pm PT Mon 07/01/2024: www.youtube.com/live... #CAwx #CAfire

Weather and climate office hours by Weather West: 07/01/2024 - YouTubewww.youtube.com The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain on various topics related to extreme weather and c...

Early signs of potentially major heatwave around 4th of July centered on Northern CA, and this event could bring hot temperatures all the way to the coast (uncommon for early Jul). Early hints at potential for some record-breaking heat & very high grass/brush fire risk. #CAwx