It's amazing how geo-politics guys are repeatedly surprised when crises and wars emerge out of social dynamics, and yet they always go back immediately to their beloved world-as-chess-game, geo-politics-speak to search for explanations and solutions.
Shortly after the Arab spring broke out I was in a chatham house meeting to discuss it and I was just watching as everyone in the room went back to their comfort zone of discussing elite manoeuvring and global/regional alliances.
Climate and environmental degradation are also lurking behind these emerging events. The top-down reactive measures get too much attention as drivers of macro-scale rapid change.