Folks, I spent today jumping into weeds of the French election in this thread—you can read it below!—but I'm sure I lost many of you who want the 'big picture'.
Let's do a quick AMA for 10-15 minutes: ask me what you want to know!
JUST IN: Polls closed in first round of France elections. Two main French TV estimates (combines early results & exit poll) show strong far-right.
Far-right bloc: ≈34%
Left bloc: ≈28-29%
Macron bloc: ≈20-22%
What does this mean? What'll happen? Follow this thread ⬇️
What do the path flows from Macron’s party and LR? Are LR voters likely to go to National Rally or something f else? Likewise, how many Macron supporters would jump to the far right instead of the Left? (I recognize there’s a lot of guesswork here)
Very roughly, LR voters may go something like 33 Macron, 33 far-right, 33 nonvoting in Macron/far-right runoffs... but there just aren't that many people voting LR at all in places where LR isn't already strong and in runoffs.
Macronists, well that's the million dollar question!
