Taniel: Folks, I spent today jumping into weeds of the French election in this thread—you can read it below!—but I'm sure I lost many of you who want the 'big picture'. Let's do a quick AMA for 10-15 minutes: ask me what you want to know!

Folks, I spent today jumping into weeds of the French election in this thread—you can read it below!—but I'm sure I lost many of you who want the 'big picture'. Let's do a quick AMA for 10-15 minutes: ask me what you want to know!

JUST IN: Polls closed in first round of France elections. Two main French TV estimates (combines early results & exit poll) show strong far-right. Far-right bloc: ≈34% Left bloc: ≈28-29% Macron bloc: ≈20-22% What does this mean? What'll happen? Follow this thread ⬇️

How many of the seats hit the 50% mark and have a definite winner?

Roughly 75, including 37 for the far-right, and 32 for the left.

Supposing the best case scenario, left and center drop out of third place positions and support one another to stop the Fascists, how many seats could they conceivably win?

You said that Macron's party was running third in many races so they would have to drop out and cede victory to leftists if they didn't want the far right to win... I don't know how much insight you have into this, but to what extent do you think Renaissance candidates will actually do that?

Like, do they actually fear the far right more than they despise the left?

I didn't say they *had* to drop out — the point is that they're allowed to stay in the runoff in many places. Macronist leaders indicated they'd be drop-outs in places the RN can win... with exceptions. Some of their MPs have already indicated they won't obey. Very hard at this point to know scope.

Can you explain a bit the background of the seat projections for round 2? Ig there are really so many democratic alliances forming against RN and if they are just at 33% today; why would they be able to end up with 250+ seats in the run-offs?

Or to be more specific: Do you think after tonight it‘s more likely than before that other parties (3rd or even below) make the reasonable choice to drop out in order to unite behind the non-RN candidate?

I think that the Left has made it as iron-clad rule as it could. And that Macronists are more clearly anti-RN tonight than at any point over the last 3 weeks, though I think everything they said for 3 weeks can't be erased in just a few days

1) IPSOS pollster point blank said on TV that the projection was based on the round 1 results, including if there are 3-ways. So it will surely change. 2) But also 2022 had nearly only two-way runoffs ... and RN did unexpectedly well in those. Drop-outs don't really equate ''Democratic alliances'

Thank you. It‘s interesting to me that so far this has worked on a national level for the presidency but does work less on a regional level, it seems.

I am admittedly ignorant of the French governmental structure. If Le Pen and her ilk get control of Parliament, will it be USA-style gridlock like when a President and Congress are controlled by different parties?

No, the French president has little powers in such a situation. By and large, the Prime Minister governs & the Assembly legislates. President has no veto power.

For more info: www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decod...

What's a cohabitation in French politics and what are the precedents?www.lemonde.fr In the history of the Fifth Republic, there have been three cohabitations, a term used in France when the president and prime minister come from opposing political camps. Emmanuel Macron's call for sn...

What do the path flows from Macron’s party and LR? Are LR voters likely to go to National Rally or something f else? Likewise, how many Macron supporters would jump to the far right instead of the Left? (I recognize there’s a lot of guesswork here)

Very roughly, LR voters may go something like 33 Macron, 33 far-right, 33 nonvoting in Macron/far-right runoffs... but there just aren't that many people voting LR at all in places where LR isn't already strong and in runoffs. Macronists, well that's the million dollar question!

Thank you for explaining, to this American, what that election means.

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