@bluebadger.bsky.social: To go along with your parenthetical, is Bowman not as good at politics? Didn't AIPAC unsuccessfully target a rep outside of Pittsburgh also?

I don't really see a good reason to think Bowman will win, but it's striking that they can't even wait until he actually loses to write the left-punching political obituaries

Rep. Bowman's downfall isn't just about Gaza or AIPAC's cash flood. It's about voting against infrastructure, aligning with fringe groups, and forgetting that real politics needs more than just fiery rhetoric.

Rep. Jamaal Bowman's base eats itself, and that could cost him his seatwww.dailykos.com If polls are to be believed, as well as vibes by those in the district, New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman will lose Tuesday in a Democratic primary race framed around the war in Gaza, following AIPAC’s unpr...

What doomed Bowman? Was it the $15M in money that was dumped into his district by the pro-Netanyahu lobby that bought hundreds of ads and a deluge of mailers? Or was it a handful of activists who booed AOC? Opinions differ!

The underlying argument Kos makes isn't even wrong, but he has to dishonestly attribute actions and views to Bowman that Bowman doesn't hold, conflating some extremist pro-Palestinian protesters with Bowman himself, using Bowman's presumed defeat as evidence bsky.app/profile/drin...

amazing what the daily kos was seen as or represented in like 2005 vs what it is today

Idk it seems like to a great degree "the left" has been very supportive of Bowman. Kos's evidence that's not the case is fundraising numbers, but why a Dem on Dem primary fight is seen as a sensible investment of money for *anyone* is kinda suspect! bsky.app/profile/thew...

Yeah - I do think there's at least something to "Bowman put himself on the line for Palestine in Congress, and it's bad that some Palestinian activist groups don't have his back" but it's not enough to be decisive in an election.

Even if Bowman pulls out a miracle victory, AIPAC's point will have been made. If you oppose Netanyahu, they will parachute into any race and flood it with money and much of the Dem establishment will stand idly by or even side with AIPAC against you (as Hillary Clinton did) bsky.app/profile/onet...

and this is only going to embolden AIPAC and do the opposite to any principled politicians who don’t want a genocide done with our money.

this... is very much not the 2024 experience, though? AIPAC only targeted two D incumbents.

I once again think people are missing forest for the trees, the fact that AIPAC has had to try and make bids against Democrats at all, and that AIPAC spends openly in races now in of itself, is indicative of the waning, not growing, influence of the lobby.

I read an excellent piece which will be out in the Guardian soon about how this race is actually indicative of something more interesting than anything to do with Bowman at all, which is that J-Street and AIPAC's relationships to lobbying are changing and so is the political culture itself.

It's kind of interesting that they didn't even really try to challenge Omar and Tlaib. I think Bowman was just more vulnerable before 10/7 anyway?

I think the anti-Omar forces have learned that she's actually very well protected in her district (and pretty good at politics). Bowman's district leaves him a lot more vulnerable

To go along with your parenthetical, is Bowman not as good at politics? Didn't AIPAC unsuccessfully target a rep outside of Pittsburgh also?

Bowman is definitely not as good at politics as most of the rest of the Squad. AIPAC targeted Summer Lee in 2022 and failed; they did not go for another bite at the apple in 2024.

i guess Lee wasn't an incumbent in 2022, actually

Oh right. And why didn't they? -- because she lined up a lot of support/is better at politics, no? AIPAC also targeted Katie Porter's old seat this cycle and lost.

correct, AIPAC tries to fight battles they think they're most likely to win.

Yes they're very averse to making themselves out to be a paper tiger, which to some extent they are, but also they're a paper tiger with a lot of money.

one might from time to time luck into adversaries who are morons but one should not depend on one's adversaries being morons

I'll add Bowman's district is very centrist, white, and Jewish. It's a whole lot of pro-Israel, Boomer, Clinton democrats (like my parents). It couldn't be more perfect for AIPAC to flip if you made it up from scratch.

That's why I think it's odd that people try to make national narratives out of local (ish) elections.

Yes, and it is definitely national news that AIPAC is parachuting in with $15-$20 million to defeat one of the few progressive members of Congress. It's indicative of our country's (in my opinion) largest democratic issue.

Summer Lee who is also good at politics and crushed her primary.

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