Emissary Of Night | ليلى: I once again think people are missing forest for the trees, the fact that AIPAC has had to try and make bids against Democrats at all, and that AIPAC spends openly in races now in of itself, is indicative of the waning, not growing, influence of the lobby.

I don't really see a good reason to think Bowman will win, but it's striking that they can't even wait until he actually loses to write the left-punching political obituaries

Rep. Bowman's downfall isn't just about Gaza or AIPAC's cash flood. It's about voting against infrastructure, aligning with fringe groups, and forgetting that real politics needs more than just fiery rhetoric.

Rep. Jamaal Bowman's base eats itself, and that could cost him his seatwww.dailykos.com If polls are to be believed, as well as vibes by those in the district, New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman will lose Tuesday in a Democratic primary race framed around the war in Gaza, following AIPAC’s unpr...

What doomed Bowman? Was it the $15M in money that was dumped into his district by the pro-Netanyahu lobby that bought hundreds of ads and a deluge of mailers? Or was it a handful of activists who booed AOC? Opinions differ!

The underlying argument Kos makes isn't even wrong, but he has to dishonestly attribute actions and views to Bowman that Bowman doesn't hold, conflating some extremist pro-Palestinian protesters with Bowman himself, using Bowman's presumed defeat as evidence bsky.app/profile/drin...

amazing what the daily kos was seen as or represented in like 2005 vs what it is today

Idk it seems like to a great degree "the left" has been very supportive of Bowman. Kos's evidence that's not the case is fundraising numbers, but why a Dem on Dem primary fight is seen as a sensible investment of money for *anyone* is kinda suspect! bsky.app/profile/thew...

Yeah - I do think there's at least something to "Bowman put himself on the line for Palestine in Congress, and it's bad that some Palestinian activist groups don't have his back" but it's not enough to be decisive in an election.

Even if Bowman pulls out a miracle victory, AIPAC's point will have been made. If you oppose Netanyahu, they will parachute into any race and flood it with money and much of the Dem establishment will stand idly by or even side with AIPAC against you (as Hillary Clinton did) bsky.app/profile/onet...

and this is only going to embolden AIPAC and do the opposite to any principled politicians who don’t want a genocide done with our money.

this... is very much not the 2024 experience, though? AIPAC only targeted two D incumbents.

I once again think people are missing forest for the trees, the fact that AIPAC has had to try and make bids against Democrats at all, and that AIPAC spends openly in races now in of itself, is indicative of the waning, not growing, influence of the lobby.

I read an excellent piece which will be out in the Guardian soon about how this race is actually indicative of something more interesting than anything to do with Bowman at all, which is that J-Street and AIPAC's relationships to lobbying are changing and so is the political culture itself.

It's kind of interesting that they didn't even really try to challenge Omar and Tlaib. I think Bowman was just more vulnerable before 10/7 anyway?

Tlaib is very likely not going anywhere for the next 20 years because she's 1) a professional politician who enmeshed herself in Michigan for years prior to Congress, 2) has built a robust and loyal left-labor base that mobilizes for her 3) her opposition is just kind of remarkably inept.

People who think she's weak axiomatically because she's radical don't really understand her position tbh.

And a lot of this always comes down to how much of the blocking and tackling of constituent services and boring shit like that they are able to do (fwiw this is reportedly a big problem for Bowman in Westchester)

And thank god for that. Her voice is so valuable.

The year for the opposition to beat Tlaib was 2020, because now she's in a better district

Yeah probably

That was the only time they took a real shot at it and still lost pretty squarely.

All true, esp point 3. It is shocking how inept most Detroit pols (local or federal) are. They let a multi-millionaire outsider, Shri Thanedar, win last term, and he's going to win again, b/c the local power brokers can't do basic political blocking & tackling. www.freep.com/story/news/p...

Adam Hollier failed to file enough voter signatures to land spot on ballot, review findswww.freep.com A review by the Wayne County clerk's office found that Democrat Adam Hollier failed to file enough signatures to land a spot on the primary ballot.

I think the anti-Omar forces have learned that she's actually very well protected in her district (and pretty good at politics). Bowman's district leaves him a lot more vulnerable

the fact that AIPAC isn’t going hard after Omar and Tlaib is imo evidence they ARE a large part of Bowman’s defeat - they aren’t spending where they don’t think they’ll swing the race, so clearly THEY think Latimer needs them

AIPAC isn't going after Tlaib because Tlaib won't lose in 9 out of 10 scenarios. Omar is a slightly different story but learned a lesson about being on the lookout and is facing the same stupid challenger who made fun of a kid he was supposed to take care of who fucking drowned in a pool lol.

As bad as Latimer already is, laughably racist and openly dismissive of nonwhites, I think if he let a kid drown in his pool and then made fun of that kid he probably wouldn't be a meaningful challenge for Bowman

right, that’s my point. they aren’t just throwing money around, they know they have no chance at defeating Tlaib. so where they ARE spending, it’s because they think their spending will impact the race

I’m not sure this fully follows. Might just be Omar and Tlaib outran Bowman, not the bear.

To go along with your parenthetical, is Bowman not as good at politics? Didn't AIPAC unsuccessfully target a rep outside of Pittsburgh also?

Bowman is definitely not as good at politics as most of the rest of the Squad. AIPAC targeted Summer Lee in 2022 and failed; they did not go for another bite at the apple in 2024.

i guess Lee wasn't an incumbent in 2022, actually

Oh right. And why didn't they? -- because she lined up a lot of support/is better at politics, no? AIPAC also targeted Katie Porter's old seat this cycle and lost.

I'll add Bowman's district is very centrist, white, and Jewish. It's a whole lot of pro-Israel, Boomer, Clinton democrats (like my parents). It couldn't be more perfect for AIPAC to flip if you made it up from scratch.

That's why I think it's odd that people try to make national narratives out of local (ish) elections.

Summer Lee who is also good at politics and crushed her primary.

She got a little complacent in '22 and let Don Samuels get too close in the primary. He's running against her again, but I don't think she's making the same mistake this year.

They did try, though maybe not to the same extent as with Bowman. Tlaib and Summer Lee beat their challengers. Omar is facing Don Samuels again in an upcoming primary.

I think after the fire alarm incident was the blood in the water moment

yeah, i think that's probably fair. also AIPAC is getting and has gotten a fair amount of mileage out of spending in open seats.

Yeah. It's just that AIPAC used to not have to do any of this at all is what is the most important part, that they have to compete with both J-Street and a nascent but growing Palestinian political lobby really worries them!

They brag about their track record all the time and they get their aura of invincibility by doing exactly what they’re doing here: monstering a specific politician who won’t toe the line

and if Bowman wins the primary, AIPAC will have both squandered $15M and chipped away at its own influence

I agree--but I think that a big victory is going to turn that around for them; now they'll be seen as kingmakers (obviously they've failed pathetically 9/10 times but it's the narrative that matters).

I doubt it, narratively speaking just 10 years ago there was not one Democrat in Congress willing to say that Israel is an apartheid state and now there are anywhere between 4 and 10 at any given moment. A small bloc for now but if their goal is to reverse this entirely it won't happen.

And beyond that bloc, J-Street has cultivated somewhere between 40-80 Democrats who are willing to pretend Israel is not an apartheid state but who are nonetheless meaningfully critical of the occupation and want to see a policy change of some kind. AIPAC has undeniably lost influence.

I do still fear the perception among Dem elites that AIPAC is powerful and not worth crossing, encouraging them to pass more legislation like the "antisemitism" bill--as a Jew the idea of a bunch of protestants being able to decide the definition of antisemitism is more than a little scary.

i don't think this is quite right either-- they've won almost everywhere they've played this cycle. they just haven't played against incumbents.

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