Mark Chadbourn: It’s a great chart. — Subium • Bluesky web client

NEW Survation MRP: Labour on Course to Win 484 seats. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition. Probabilistic seat count: LAB 484 CON 64 LD 61 SNP 10 RFM 7 PC 3 GRN 3 34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone

Professor Paula Surridge of Bristol Uni says you should take this one seriously as all the modelling has been done by Chris Hanratty who did all the constituency-level breakdowns after the referendum.

Remember, at this level those seats separating Tory and Lib Dem will be super-marginal. Shouldn’t take much to move them.

This isn’t a criticism of you specifically, but I don’t think people disseminating polls do a good enough job emphasizing margin of error and its effects These polls could be 100% accurate, and still encompass results where parties either double or half their projected seat count.

The people following me here are all smart. They’ll know that.

I thought this chart you shared from @samfr.bsky.social was fascinating to test best case/worst case.

It’s a great chart.

Also interesting to see how not-solid Reform's numbers are. We could keep them to 0 seats with a bit of luck.

That would be a good result. I’ll take a Tory in Clacton to keep Farage out.

I'm rooting for Nigel Farage and Giles Watling running neck and neck while Jovan Owusu-Nepaul comes through the middle for the win.

And... I've just caught up on the latest news there. FUCK!

I wonder if that could have happened. But Labour pulled Jovan and all resources out of the constituency. He’s in the West Mids now, I think.

Yes. Starmer couldn’t bear Jovan getting more attention than him it seems.

Clacton must be a vile place

Genuinely unconvinced rather is what was the cause.

That just seems petty and dumb

Post