Mark Chadbourn: Remember, at this level those seats separating Tory and Lib Dem will be super-marginal. Shouldn’t take much to move them.

NEW Survation MRP: Labour on Course to Win 484 seats. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition. Probabilistic seat count: LAB 484 CON 64 LD 61 SNP 10 RFM 7 PC 3 GRN 3 34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone

Professor Paula Surridge of Bristol Uni says you should take this one seriously as all the modelling has been done by Chris Hanratty who did all the constituency-level breakdowns after the referendum.

Remember, at this level those seats separating Tory and Lib Dem will be super-marginal. Shouldn’t take much to move them.

I'm trying not to let myself get too excited at the possibility that the Lib Dems might come 2nd, and joy of joys, the Tories down to just one question at PMQs if they came third? Imagine how civilised and productive it could be without that lot lying and braying from the opposition benches.

The chamber will probably be civilised for five years at least.

Yep AND far more productive We’ll finally see Democracy in action The Tories were more than happy to do absolutely nothing Just like their US Republican Soulmates

I think about where they are going to sit in the House of Commons: right behind the SNP MPs who will probably growl and glare at them

How satisfying would that be!

Indeed

Wouldn’t it be extraordinary to have Lib Dems as official opposition? This I would love to see. Looking a lot like an appalling miscalculation by Sunak to go early.

It would change everything.

It would be STUPENDOUS

Oh gosh the hope ...

There's something about a LD opposition I find extremely attractive. It might make for quite a grown up parliament.

I think you’re right.

Absolutely

Hopefully this will be one www.theguardian.com/politics/art... Lower than whaleshit, they are.

Tories criticised for saying Lib Dem candidate pretending to be blindwww.theguardian.com Charity alleges doorknocker in Torbay suggested Steve Darling was using his guide dog ‘for political purposes’

Disgusting.

They really are beneath contempt, aren't they.

Vile.

Expect to shortly see Ed Davey fired from a canon at the moon 😀

This isn’t a criticism of you specifically, but I don’t think people disseminating polls do a good enough job emphasizing margin of error and its effects These polls could be 100% accurate, and still encompass results where parties either double or half their projected seat count.

The people following me here are all smart. They’ll know that.

I thought this chart you shared from @samfr.bsky.social was fascinating to test best case/worst case.

It’s a great chart.

Also interesting to see how not-solid Reform's numbers are. We could keep them to 0 seats with a bit of luck.

That would be a good result. I’ll take a Tory in Clacton to keep Farage out.

😁😆😁

*nods wisely*

Presenting them without analysis is useful - we can always investigate further if concerned. The overview is fine. #justsaying

What happens if they're tied on seat numbers, who gets to be OO.

Fight!

I fancy Ed Davey at that, if it comes to it.

Action Man vs Inaction Man.

Absolutely. We could have a full Gladiators.

😂😂😂 Eds been in training for weeks.

😁😆😁😆

Thunderdome! Sunak will get taken apart like a fresh cooked chicken.

(I don’t know. It’s never happened before.)

They’ve got to do bungee jumps. Davey has secretly been planning this all along.

😂

Enough opportunists would defect to LibDem at the slightest breeze. Surely there's enough of a faction to hold the Tories hostage if they didnt, then do it anyway.

My idle thoughts wonder about some labour MPs defecting to the Lib-Dems. They should have enough MPs to chose their opposition.

I hope we're doing these kinds of calculations Friday morning to keep the Tories out of opposition. They are taking on some really horrible characteristics of shouty US conservatism, and I'm tired of pretending they are arguing in good faith.

That seems possible from the Lib Dems if the Tories tack hard(er) right within a few months of the election. The potential for that would create massive instability for the Tories. Also a formal LibDem-Green pact could tip that over the edge, forcing a formal Tory-Reform pact as a reaction.

Another thought is that the DUP throw their lot into the ring with the Tories to keep them ahead of the Lib Dems plus Greens.

The Ministerial and Salaries Act 1975 says it will be determined by the Speaker: www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1975/27 But in practice, they may well balance the OO privileges (PMQs etc.) between the main opposition parties.

Ministerial and other Salaries Act 1975www.legislation.gov.uk An Act to consolidate the enactments relating to the salaries of Ministers and Opposition Leaders and Chief Whips and to other matters connected therewith.

(sorry for the boring answer in amongst the more, er, creative solutions). Next problem: Where do they all sit?

Ohhh good point.

Post