Chris Hanretty

@chanret.bsky.social

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I teach politics at a university in the UK. I'm interested in electoral systems, public opinion, and the politics of non-majoritarian institutions like courts and regulators.

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Chris Hanretty

For some reason this Hunter S. Thompson excerpt about LBJ is on my mind.

Glad to see the spirit of "se non è vero, è ben trovato" alive and well on this site -- at least when it comes to candidates from the out-group.

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Chris Hanretty

The Electoral Integrity Global Report 2024 is now out! 🗳 The report evaluates election quality in national contests around the world 2012-23 🔧 This year the methodology has been improved to assess whether elections empower citizens 📉 Download here: www.electoralintegrityproject.com/reports

Preparing to deactivate my Twitter account by first requesting all my data

Withdrawing the whip from seven of your MPs within three weeks of the election seems like a lot, no? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Labour win two-child benefit cap vote in first major testwww.bbc.co.uk The government comfortably won the vote despite growing pressure from some of its own MPs to scrap the policy.

I'm working on a book manuscript with some coauthors. It's quite technical in parts, so we promised the publishers we'd get some people with university degrees not in the social sciences to read it.

What I would love: a pandoc filter that would colour sentences based on their readability (by whatever metric). Any Lua experts who want to volunteer?

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Chris Hanretty

It's been a relatively safe century for heads of state and government, so far.

Quite angry at what has happened to The Bear. That season wasted my time. I do not want to watch music videos. I do not want to see famous chefs giving magazine quotes. I cannot take more slow footage of Jeremy Allen White's cheeks flushing as he stares into the middle distance.

Random forests is AI now, pass it on

why newatlas.com/health-wellb...

I hadn't made the connection between recruitment to government and legislative behaviour, but @stephenkb.bsky.social sets it out very nicely here

Some thoughts on Keir Starmer's government now he has made his final appointments to it (I *think* that last night's were the last one), what he cares about in promoting people and the risks involved:

What Keir Starmer’s cabinet picks tell us about his approach to governmentwww.ft.com Outsiders will provide expertise, but numerous long-standing allies have been overlooked

Recent events have conspired to make next year's seminars on (1) electoral systems and (2) presidential v parliamentary government rather more one-sided than they otherwise would have been

Nothing is measured without error, election results edition: 6,558 votes went missing in Putney democracy.wandsworth.gov.uk/mgElectionAr...

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Chris Hanretty

Election data: we've published the Commons Library datasets for General Election 2024, with constituency and candidate level vote shares, electorates, etc. commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-bri...

General election 2024 resultscommonslibrary.parliament.uk Full results of the 4th July 2024 general election, where Labour won a majority in Parliament

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Chris Hanretty

My analysis of recently released ICO data shows how often the ICO has upheld complaints made by FOI requesters against different legal grounds for rejections used by public authorities. For more detail and background, see my blog: rosenbaum.org.uk/foi-which-co...

New (open access) article: "Legislators’ accountability for issue stances: evidence from Australia’s Marriage Law Postal Survey", doi.org/10.1080/1036...

Legislators’ accountability for issue stances: evidence from Australia’s Marriage Law Postal Surveydoi.org For legislators to be held accountable for their stances voters need to sanction unpopular positions. However, because of strong party discipline it is difficult to identify the effects of individu...

UCAS scraps personal statement www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... <- this is good

Ucas scraps personal statements for university admissionswww.bbc.co.uk Ucas says the change will encourage applicants from disadvantaged backgrounds to apply to higher education.

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Chris Hanretty

Reply to

Jelena Brankovic

Gender disparities in promotions and exiting in UK Russell Group universities, by Richard Harris, Mariluz Mate-Sanchez-Val & Manuel Ruiz Marín

Gender disparities in promotions and exiting in UK Russell Group universitieswww.tandfonline.com A theoretical model of promotion and exits is presented incorporating statistical discrimination and bias, with both leading to a lower likelihood of promotion and a higher probability of exiting a...

Is Poland the EU's most homophobic country? Wouldn't Romania and Bulgaria be more likely candidates? They certainly are more homophobic as far as public opinion is concerned

🎭 #DemocraticTransformations No.15 🏳️‍🌈 In the EU's most homophobic country, Poznań stands out as a beacon of queer acceptance. Tomasz Gola highlights the role of local NGOs, cultural receptivity & proactive governance in its transformation. bit.ly/3y4whjx

🎭 What can we learn from Poland’s queer capital, Poznań?bit.ly In the EU's most homophobic country, Poznań stands out as a beacon of queer acceptance and activism. Polish native Tomasz Gola explores the ways this city has become queer-friendly, highlighting the r...

First time in France for 14 juillet. Banal nationalism it is not.

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Chris Hanretty

Reply to

Xiaowen Xu, PhD

To add on: A lot of the defeatist attitudes I'm seeing from Dems when the election hasn't even happened also track with higher Neuroticism and lower Assertiveness (both correlated with higher liberalism). And it's so frustrating to see.

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Chris Hanretty

Reply to

Kevin Reuning

Also if you are curious this graph shows how survey methods have changed overtime. From www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023...

Boy, but do prior predictive checks really make you think about your model

People in areas which were already Labour-held turned out at lower rates. This is part of the reason why Labour's vote was so "efficient". It may also be part of the explanation for polling misses.

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Chris Hanretty

A parliamentary pal tells me: “the register of financial interests is retroactive to one year before members take their seats. As of today Farage and Tice have 28 days to make a complete declaration” 🍿

[email protected] and I have written a post on the effects of voter ID on turnout in #GE2024; we think that in the average constituency turnout was around 1.37 to 1.6 percentage points lower than it otherwise would have been hollodec.github.io/2024/07/09/v...

Voter ID and turnout in GE2024hollodec.github.io Since the last General Election one of the most significant changes to the UK election process has been the introduction of photo ID for voters voting in-person. Although it was piloted in 2018 and 20...

"It does seem a remarkable discrepancy that a voter has to prove their identity whilst a candidate does not"

What if a parliamentary candidate did not exist? The latest odd constitutional law question which nobody has really thought of asking before By me Substack: emptycity.substack.com/p/what-if-a-... Non-Substack: davidallengreen.com/2024/07/what...

Just realized that there is at least one MP who understands polling en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_C...

Chris Curtis (politician) - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org

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Chris Hanretty

Amongst candidate names occurring at least 5 times within party, distinctively Tory names include Simon, Caroline, Laura, and Robert. Distinctively Labour names include Alex, Michael, Matt, Josh, Joe, and Dan. James and Andrew are common to both but lean Tory; Chris and Sarah lean Labour.

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Chris Hanretty

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Chris Hanretty

@chanret.bsky.social @stephenkb.bsky.social @juliablunck.bsky.social @runeberg.bsky.social I have done a separate post that covers this issue - turnout dropped sharply across the board, but particularly in the most deprived areas. Thank you for reading my blog! kafkaesque.blog/post/turnout...

Kafkaesque Blog - Turnout Addendumkafkaesque.blog Turnout in the 2024 GE