Stephen Bush

Stephen Bush

@stephenkb.bsky.social

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Associate editor and columnist at the Financial Times. Post too often about culture, public policy, management, politics, nerd stuff. Tongue usually in cheek. Try my UK politics newsletter for free here: www.ft.com/tryinsidepolitics

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If I had a pound for every time the Labour party entered office with a majority while winning less votes than in the crushing defeat it got in the election before, I’d have two nickels, which is not a lot, but it’s weird that it’s happened twice.

I think misplaced cynicism about election promises is causing a lot of people to work too hard on “why did the Tories lose so badly?” It’s not that deep: most parties keep at least 80 per cent of their pledges. This one…really the only one is that they didn’t raise VAT. How else was it gonna end?

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Worth noting that Le Pen’s party got just over 4 million votes in the 2019 legislative election and Reform got just over 4 million in the UK last night. Different countries with different systems but still

Very good thread this. In many ways this was a typical 2020s European election. When you consider how so many of those are ending, that's a bit worrying.

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It looks like a polling error close to 1992 levels! Which the industry will go ‘lol, lmao’ about cos the actual result was right

Today's Inside Politics: Keir Starmer, Ed Davey, Carla Denyer & Adrian Ramsey led their parties to historic victories - in more ways than one. Some thoughts on the good and the bad ways these results made history:

Historic UK election hauls reveal bigger voter trends Financial Timeswww.ft.com We are now in an era of increased volatility where party dominance is never guaranteed

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In a lowkey way Threads is the weirdest major social network because it never feels like you are actually connected to anything. You're just drifting along past these conversations that happened 7 hours ago.

X increasingly has many of the worst traits of Twitter-under-Musk *and* Threads' weird 'gas leak social network' effect.

Very good thread this. In many ways this was a typical 2020s European election. When you consider how so many of those are ending, that's a bit worrying.

2. Labour held steady in total votes, but combined with the fractured vote on the right, won a historic parliamentary majority. This is in line with trends elsewhere in Europe. The far right rises and wins when the center-left atomizes (Italy, France) and falls short when it holds (Spain, Portugal).

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It's fairly obvious from the results that this latest Labour Party coalition is dominated by public sector employees of various grades and skilled workers. Which is interesting as guess which parts of the workforce still have large numbers of TU members. Time is a flat circle?

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"Ah, so you're saying this is the perfect moment to do something with the Galloway character..." "Oh, no, his actor wants more money. Write him out."

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This is a series finale written by RTD. In retrospect it didn’t make a lick of sense but you had a good time watching it at the time

Sorry, I am increasingly convinced we are a soon to be cancelled TV show. “Oh, eventually Scottish Labour were rescued by, let’s say, Mo” level plotting.

Labour wins Na h-Eileanan an Iar?!

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Looks like turnout figures are down to 2005 numbers too

Essentially if you see this election as “the 2005 era Labour coalition against a much much weaker Tory party and when voters are much more willing to shop around” it makes a huge amount of sense.

No way Jeremy Corbyn is going to lose given how well Faiza Shaheen did in defeat in Chingford.

UK general election live: Labour makes gains across the country, while George Galloway loses seatFinancial Timeswww.ft.com

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As-salamu alaykum my brothers and sisters I have lost my seat. There will be no primark

Everything we’ve seen suggests the exit poll is underestimating the scale of Labour and Liberal Democrat gains and electoral efficiency, and overestimating Reform and the Conservatives.

UK general election live: Labour takes early seats, with a strong showing from Reform UKFinancial Timeswww.ft.com

Two things: one, finishing above Tony Blair's 1997 haul is very much on as it stands. Two, and much more importantly, so too is Labour getting 420 seats.

Wildly extrapolating from Swindon South: better than projected by the exit poll, so thus far, all the results pointing to a bit better than the exit poll, a bit worse than the average of the MRPs for Labour.

UK general election live: Reform UK has cost the Tories seats, says exit pollsterwww.ft.com

Wildly extrapolating from Swindon South: better than projected by the exit poll, so thus far, all the results pointing to a bit better than the exit poll, a bit worse than the average of the MRPs for Labour. Vice versa for Reform.

UK general election live: Reform UK has cost the Tories seats, says exit pollsterwww.ft.com

Wildly extrapolating from Swindon South: better than projected by the exit poll, so thus far, all the results pointing to a bit better than the exit poll, a bit worse than the average of the MRPs for Labour.

UK general election live: Reform UK has cost the Tories seats, says exit pollsterwww.ft.com

You can travel the country. You can speak to hundreds of people in 32 seats over six weeks. And then in the end, your gut feeling is completely outclassed by just getting the computer to deduct three from the Labour score and add three to the Tory one.

Yeah, it's hilarious that I came fairly close to the exit poll just by using the FT's ready reckoner and going 'fuck it, just deduct three from Labour and add to the Tory score from the poll average'.

Blyth & Ashington and Sunderland South (only two results, but if you can't wildly overextrapolate, what is quarter to midnight on election night even *for*?) both suggest: MRPs overestimating the Labour share, exit poll overestimating Reform:

UK general election live: Labour, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK the big winners, according to exit pollwww.ft.com

An important thing to understand about the UK's exit poll is that it is really accurate for predicting, e.g. 'the Liberal Democrats will win around 60 seats' but it isn't designed to spit out the *right* 60 seats, so really don't spend anytime looking at what those are:

UK general election live: Labour, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK the big winners, according to exit pollwww.ft.com

Volatility giveth, and volatility taketh away.

UK general election live: Labour, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK the big winners, according to exit pollwww.ft.com

In its modern form, the UK general exit poll has never been wrong - but the smaller parties add complexity, so the picture in Scotland in particular could change. I'll be commenting on the FT liveblog throughout the night:

UK general election live: Conservatives to be reduced to 131 seatswww.ft.com

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Enjoying the group of voters in some areas who are going to have gone Lib Dem - UKIP - Green since 2010

There’s a window on the estate that has, since the last election, had a “vote Diane Abbott” poster which has over the last few days changed to “Vote Green”, which is just a beautiful snapshot of how odd electoral behaviour can be.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: video games are such terrific value, and it is truly amazing how many playthroughs there are to do in Baldur’s Gate 3.

Today’s newsletter: some thoughts on Rishi Sunak’s election campaign, and the decisions, in the last six weeks, but also the last two years that made it so:

Why has Rishi Sunak’s campaign been such a disaster?www.ft.com The PM’s blunders worsened his chances amid a backdrop of crumbling public services and party fundraising struggles

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this week on the Guardian’s always riveting Dining Across the Divide feature, a stark clash of political philosophies

Today’s newsletter: some thoughts on Rishi Sunak’s election campaign, and the decisions, in the last six weeks, but also the last two years that made it so:

Why has Rishi Sunak’s campaign been such a disaster?www.ft.com The PM’s blunders worsened his chances amid a backdrop of crumbling public services and party fundraising struggles