Will Jennings 🗳️

@drjennings.bsky.social

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I research and write about politics, public policy, public opinion, polls, elections, trust.

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Our latest, final pre-election analysis for Sky News. Why a Starmer victory in 2024 will look very different from Blair's 1997 landslide. Includes fun charts and maps! news.sky.com/story/the-si...

Whatever happens on Thursday, the geography of Labour's support has changed significantly shifted. No more talk of the 'Red Wall' please! news.sky.com/story/the-si...

Delighted to see our book, The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales, reviewed in The Economist. Even better news it's available in paperback for £30 -not £90! Even, even better news, you can use code ASFLYQ6 to save 30% and get it for £21! global.oup.com/academic/pro...

Nice write-up of our book and the 'Merseyside effect' in the electoral geography of England and Wales... www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpo...

The 'Merseyside effect' and why this region bucks the trendwww.liverpoolecho.co.uk The city region tends to plough its own furrow when it comes to politics and voting - and there is a reason why

So far during the #GE24 campaign, pollsters have surveyed ~230,000 people for standard Westminster voting intention polls and ~330,000 people for MRP polls.

I'm not sure that it has truly hit home that the average Labour majority in MRP polls fielded during the #GE24 campaign is 251 seats. Two hundred and fifty one!

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Will Jennings 🗳️

Reply to

Viktor Valgarðsson

Previous studies have disagreed whether political trust has been declining or in "trendless fluctuation". Our findings suggest that while trust declines are not linear or universal, they are very real. We need to understand the implications of these declines for our democracy.

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Will Jennings 🗳️

Reply to

Viktor Valgarðsson

In sharp contrast, trust in "implementing" institutions has been either stable or rising practically everywhere: in particular, trust in the police has been rising by about 15 percentage points globally (among democracies) since 1990!

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Will Jennings 🗳️

Reply to

Viktor Valgarðsson

We* find that trust in "representative" institutions has been declining by ~10 p.p. among democracies since 1990, but trust in "implementing" institutions has been rising! *I, @drjennings.bsky.social, Gerry Stoker, @hannahbunting.bsky.social, @danjdevine.bsky.social, Lawrence McKay & Andrew Klassen

Our book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘌𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘔𝘢𝘱 𝘰𝘧 𝘌𝘯𝘨𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘞𝘢𝘭𝘦𝘴 is out TODAY. Order online at lnkd.in/eVAZegUv with promotion code ASFLYQ6 to save 30%! Colour maps and charts included!

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Will Jennings 🗳️

There hasn’t been a poll since D-Day/Farage got back in that hasn’t spat out “LOTO Davey” in the FT’s election prediction tool.

New Deltapoll: Labour lead by 27 points. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)

I could be wrong, but if your political opponents keep using extended clips of your interviews for their ads, that's a bad sign.

If you want to compare current polling to 1997, Labour's lead declined over that election campaign (and the final polls over-estimated the Labour vote) but is widening right now...

Well I suppose we might get an answer to the question 'What would happen if you ran as bad an election campaign as Theresa May in 2017 but starting 20 points behind in the polls rather than in front?"

The state of the #GE2024 race in the latest MRPs... Survation: Con 71, Lab 487, LD 43, SNP 26 YouGov: Con 140, Lab 422, LD 48, SNP 17 MiC: Con 180, Lab 382, LD 30, SNP 35 FON/Electoral Calculus: Con 66, Lab 476, LD 59, SNP 26

Analysis from me of the latest YouGov MRP poll for #SkyNews… news.sky.com/story/tory-s...

Tory support has fallen most in areas where it was previously highest, MRP poll suggestsnews.sky.com Estimates from the new Sky News/YouGov poll suggest that the sorts of places that delivered the Conservatives their decisive victory under Boris Johnson in 2019 are turning away from the party with th...

🚨📈The latest #SkyNews poll tracker puts Labour on a 21-point lead over the Conservatives📉🚨 Lab 44.5 (40-47) Con 23.6 (20-28) Reform 11.3 (8-15) Lib Dems 9.3 (8-11) Green 5.9 (3-11) SNP 2.9 (2-3) Follow the tracker here: news.sky.com/story/sky-ne...

📈Labour leads in the latest Westminster polling, by pollster (only polls since election called)📉 25 YouGov 25 WeThink 24 Techne 23 Survation 23 Redfield & Wilton 22 Deltapoll 20 Whitestone Insight 19 More in Common 17 Savanta 16 BMG 14 Opinium 12 JL Partners

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Will Jennings 🗳️

With a month until #GeneralElection day, Labour’s lead stands at 25 points. Not a bad place to be. Meanwhile: 🔵 Sunak net approval hits equal record low 🔴 Starmer 20 points ahead as nation’s preferred PM 🤷‍♂️ Nearly 50% of voters NOT clear about the main party policies More here: buff.ly/4bCsF75

‘Whisper it…’ oh I love it when they play the old tunes from 2023… www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05...

Whisper it, but Rishi Sunak is making an extraordinary comebackwww.telegraph.co.uk With Starmer floundering, Farage flailing and Ed Davey acting a fool, a Tory revival is now on the cards

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Will Jennings 🗳️

At some point Democratic elected officials will notice that when Donald Trump has a personal setback the majority of the population literally celebrates in the street, I hope.

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Will Jennings 🗳️

Oh no www.rollingstone.com/politics/pol...

Today is historic in how fucking funny it Is

Trump Hoped ‘My Juror’ Would Save Him From Convictionwww.rollingstone.com Trump and his team thought one of the jurors was on their side — and might help him evade conviction. That didn’t happen.

📈The latest #SkyNews poll tracker puts Labour on a 21-point lead over the Conservatives📉 #GE2024 Lab 44.3 (40-47) Con 23.3 (19-28) Reform 11.2 (8-14) Lib Dems 9.5 (8-12) Green 6.1 (3-11) SNP 2.8 (2-3) Follow the tracker here: news.sky.com/story/sky-ne...

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Will Jennings 🗳️

24 carat gold

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Will Jennings 🗳️

Just a campaign based around ignoring everything the last 20 years have shown about what a successful Conservative election campaign involves: www.ft.com/content/2971...

I have a feeling that national service is not going to prove as popular as some pollsters seem to be suggesting...

Changes in the Labour lead in the polls since the election was called: 📈Techne +2 📉Opinium -4 📉YouGov -1.5 📈WeThink +2

Are we only two days into the general election campaign?

📉Conservative vote intention in last poll under Liz Truss vs latest poll 📉 YouGov 19 vs 21 Ipsos 26 vs 20 Redfield & Wilton 21 vs 23 Deltapoll 25 vs 23 Savanta 25 vs 26 WeThink 22 vs 23 Techne 22 vs 19 JL Partners 26 vs 26 Opinium 23 vs 25 People Polling 14 vs 20

Quite an illuminating word cloud...