It is weird that the vibe here (on my feed, at least) is that Biden is likely staying in it even if a lot of folks want him to step down, while the vibe on Twitter is an almost jubilant feeling that a wave of representatives next week telling him to step down will convince him.
yeah I dunno if we’re missing something or if Twitter is doing cope. I’m willing to believe somebody is trying to org an uprising but I’m not really willing to believe it has legs
Anyway, the way it *should* work is that Jeffries will hear out members, take their concerns to the president, and if Biden says no, that's it. Any major public campaign after that will just do major damage without achieving its goal.
unless they are actually willing to impeach him, which they aren’t (and shouldn’t be), there are no options to force him out. There is no play here.
A journalist might flatter some members and give them some social proof while they destroy themselves though
also, if I were representing a congressional district and the sitting president got 22k more votes in my district than I did in the last election we were both on the ballot, I probably would not call on him to exit the race
so far the only thing that might be anything like hitting back is if the Warner leak was from the Biden camp. I do not think you can expect that to continue indefinitely- either Congressional Dems come in overwhelming force, in which case maybe, or there’s going to be discipline
I feel like the fact that today’s polls show Biden narrowing the gap in swing states really ends the argument. At this point, what’s even the argument for him stepping out? That some imaginary, unnamed candidate with no existing campaign or funding would do better?
"please make the negative coverage stop. I am afraid of reporters being mean and providing unfair coverage and it will stop if we give them what they want."
which, to be fair, if you are the kind of person who would give in for that reason, you absolutely should not be president.
If Biden steps out and Harris steps in, there will be an outpouring of op-eds calling for Harris to step down because she enabled Biden and knew he wasn’t still qualified to be president. “What did she know and when did she know it?” It would giftwrap the presidency to Trump.
Generally agree the safest course is for Biden to stay the course.
I think people are panicked, scared, and not really thinking clearly on "would this improve our situation or just change it?" They will calm a bit once it's clear that their fears don't manifest reality.
the argument for him stepping out has to be that either 1) he is unfit to go or 2) perceptions of him being unfit to go, fair or no, will lead to certain electoral disaster.
2) is looking real ragged at this point. 1) depends on stuff we don’t know but it’s not looking great either
A week of campaign events (including two tomorrow) have basically left people grasping at straws for 1), IMO. No one really is making an argument that he's unable to command the executive branch (except when he makes choices they don't want him to).
It's funny because we actually have a good example of what it looks like when someone unfit runs the executive branch does: historic levels of turnover, firing people for petty, paranoid reasons, appointing acting officials unlawfully, etc. Trump's right there!
Yup. This argument would have been an easier longterm sell in 2020 when campaigning was tougher due to COVID. But with Biden at like a million stops and doing an interview in the last week, I think the narrative is falling apart. And I think people are already really sick of it.
I mean, the problem here is that people don't believe this for the reasons they say they believe this, they want Biden out for other reasons but use 1) and 2) as shields for the most part.
If the polls bode weal, they'll become Unskew the Polls guys arguing that they're too biased for the incumbent and/or aren't capturing the tens of millions of people who would vote for Kamala/Gretch/Sanders/Johnny Unbeatable but not Biden, who are just out of frame, seething with them.
What’s odd about all this is that Congressional Dem leadership is itself wishy-washy. What we are getting from Pelosi and Jeffries is vague support statements. Any discipline is going to require the leaders coming out strong first.
I just got an email from a senior D close to Pelosi (but not in leadership.)
Subject: “REP X SUPPORTS BIDEN!”
Body of email. “For immediate release: Rep X expresses their support for the Biden-Harris ticket.”
Those are not the same
Yes absolutely I have a Biden Harris shirt that I wore last week.
What I’ve noticed, and you may not agree with me, is there’s been a push to support “Biden-Harris,” and that’s a way to say “we’re ok with Biden and if he goes we are laying down the gauntlet: it can only be Harris.”
The only way to force Biden out is to have the votes, and that would be insane because Republicans won’t seat a vice president and not having a tie breaker in the Senate stops the judicial appointment train through the election.
I can't think of a bigger way for democrats to beclown themselves than impeaching him. fold or not fold that would be *insane*. I'm not even sure you'd have the votes for it; I would not count on enough senate Republicans going along with that if they thought acquitting would ratfuck harder.
not to mention you'd have to try to come up with a facially plausible "high crime or misdemeanor."
anyway, I won't belabor the point because nobody is talking about it. it isn't going to happen and I think Biden is resolute on staying in even if he has to step over half of congress
yeah that is effectively "if you don't do this we'll just concede this whole thing right now." which, I know that some lefty activists have adopted that approach to politics but if the party apparatus itself implodes we're all fucked
Right. I think certain people might be able to persuade him. But they won't be able to force him. And if they look like they're trying to force him by making this a big public thing, they'll be less likely to persuade him.
Yeah. I could see a world where they get through the immediate fire, get a little space and some spins of the news cycle, and then he’s able to do it with pride intact. The flipside of that is if such space happens (big if) it’ll be easy to rationalize staying the course.
