Stephen Bush: You can travel the country. You can speak to hundreds of people in 32 seats over six weeks. And then in the end, your gut feeling is completely outclassed by just getting the computer to deduct three from the Labour score and add three to the Tory one.

You can travel the country. You can speak to hundreds of people in 32 seats over six weeks. And then in the end, your gut feeling is completely outclassed by just getting the computer to deduct three from the Labour score and add three to the Tory one.

Yeah, it's hilarious that I came fairly close to the exit poll just by using the FT's ready reckoner and going 'fuck it, just deduct three from Labour and add to the Tory score from the poll average'.

This has been true for basically every election in British history.

It truly is uncanny.

It looks like a polling error close to 1992 levels! Which the industry will go ‘lol, lmao’ about cos the actual result was right

Yeah, I feel a bit annoyed with myself for not sticking to my guns on pointing out my Susan Hall prediction was wrong in its conclusion (it was not close) but not directionally (the polls were way off!)

Same happened in 1997 of course (and for that matter, 1987 was worse than either)

Fundamentally, we are still ruled by a literal King in an actual castle. We are a small-c conservative country.

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