Two months to labor day and from there there's two more months of the silly season including debate, the 538 polling average hasn't even gotten to April's margins lol
That's what everyone is losing their goddamn minds about, a two point debate polling bump. That's what it is right now. That's what people are losing their goddamn minds over. Its been five days. We've had polls, including day of.
The (not even that old, common for the most reliable voters) line was that the election didn't start till the World Series was over.
The World Series is in November now and no one watches baseball anymore, but also fucks sake, it's July, 95% of the country is just sorting out their charcoal choice.
Right now, today, the polling is completely in line with a Biden repeat along roughly 2020 margins and there's honestly no reason to doubt that as the likeliest outcome
Biden won in 2020 against pre-J6, pre-Dobbs, pre-indicted, pre-convicted, pre-anointed-king-in-waiting-by-SCOTUS incumbent Trump. Polls aside, this is a rematch where Biden is now the incumbent and all that shit has happened.
I have seen *nothing* to suggest that things have turned around for Trump popularity-wise, and the polls are telling us we’re supposed to believe he’s got even odds of winning the popular vote. As if.
Right, and the explanation we get is that some rules of politics have held fast and others have totally flipped. Looks to me like Occam’s Razor is more that presidential approval is not so tightly correlated with party vote share anymore, and maybe with presidential vote share.
Approval/direction have melded into the same metric. In a system like ours, where there are different power centers to agree or disagree with, the president is now literally responsible if you stub your toe on the bed tomorrow.
I expect some marginal shifting in voter decision year to year and election to election, but I just don't understand the mechanism by which the first generation to answer "There are more than two genders" majority "Yes" are swinging towards the guy who wants to jail trans people by 40 points
The GOP has gone from pushing the "Make Tuned-In Liberals Mad" agenda to the "Make Apolitical Adults Mad" agenda and even people on entertainment channels are noticing. The GOP's only play is voter apathy (hence "Biden Old! Biden Sick!") but Dobbs didn't inspire apathy.
And here’s the next thing to get voters angry and engaged. This is trump’s platform. We must spread this and make sure it’s understood that it’s the plan for trump’s presidency. Project 2025 MUST be connected to him in voters minds.
democracyforward.org/the-peoples-...
