Two months to labor day and from there there's two more months of the silly season including debate, the 538 polling average hasn't even gotten to April's margins lol
That's what everyone is losing their goddamn minds about, a two point debate polling bump. That's what it is right now. That's what people are losing their goddamn minds over. Its been five days. We've had polls, including day of.
The (not even that old, common for the most reliable voters) line was that the election didn't start till the World Series was over.
The World Series is in November now and no one watches baseball anymore, but also fucks sake, it's July, 95% of the country is just sorting out their charcoal choice.
Right now, today, the polling is completely in line with a Biden repeat along roughly 2020 margins and there's honestly no reason to doubt that as the likeliest outcome
Biden won in 2020 against pre-J6, pre-Dobbs, pre-indicted, pre-convicted, pre-anointed-king-in-waiting-by-SCOTUS incumbent Trump. Polls aside, this is a rematch where Biden is now the incumbent and all that shit has happened.
I have seen *nothing* to suggest that things have turned around for Trump popularity-wise, and the polls are telling us we’re supposed to believe he’s got even odds of winning the popular vote. As if.
Right, and the explanation we get is that some rules of politics have held fast and others have totally flipped. Looks to me like Occam’s Razor is more that presidential approval is not so tightly correlated with party vote share anymore, and maybe with presidential vote share.
I expect some marginal shifting in voter decision year to year and election to election, but I just don't understand the mechanism by which the first generation to answer "There are more than two genders" majority "Yes" are swinging towards the guy who wants to jail trans people by 40 points
The GOP has gone from pushing the "Make Tuned-In Liberals Mad" agenda to the "Make Apolitical Adults Mad" agenda and even people on entertainment channels are noticing. The GOP's only play is voter apathy (hence "Biden Old! Biden Sick!") but Dobbs didn't inspire apathy.
And here’s the next thing to get voters angry and engaged. This is trump’s platform. We must spread this and make sure it’s understood that it’s the plan for trump’s presidency. Project 2025 MUST be connected to him in voters minds.
democracyforward.org/the-peoples-...
There's never been any reason to think the outcome could EVER be much different than that. Who the hell has changed their minds about TRUMP in the past four years?
There are probably some people who feel less happy about voting for Biden than they did four years ago. I get that. I think it's all bullshit but it's not up to me what the vibes are out there. He's old af; it is what it is. But even those people will in the end say "yeah but it's TRUMP. Ew."
Yes, I think the main effect of the debate will be that people will be pulling the lever for Biden filled with mild trepidation instead of righteous fury.
Fortunately voting machines don't measure emotional states.
Here's one reason to think the outcome will be much different: this time Trump outsourced his ground game to a bunch of grifters.
And by "much different", I mean much worse for Trump.
And the polling has not accounted for the Democrats overperforming in recent elections, especially in the aftermath of the Dobbs decision.
Hell, in a recent election, the Democrat who was supposed to lose ended up winning by several points.
Polling is broken, and the media has to know this.
Perhaps its cope, but the thing I keep telling myself is that Trump lost last time by 7m votes, and since then:
1) Dobbs
2) 34 felony convictions
3) Biden's gained an incumbency advantage
I can't see anything outweighing that.
Though it feels like the intense media/pundit/podcaster push to get Biden to drop out could influence voters to think maybe they’re missing something and then not vote for Biden? I still tend to think more visibility of Trump over time will remind voters why they don’t want him again.
some of my normal, non-online friends were talking politics this weekend. consensus:
>this is the best we can do? sad
>trump is a huge liar and btw did you see all the “black jobs” tiktoks I sent you
>isn’t the election not until like november anyway?
It’s fear, shock and horror. The specter of a real second Trump term is anathema to American civics; he should have been stopped at a hundred points. It’s both awful and something that should be impossible.
The panic is basically the same as seeing Cthulhu rise from the ocean.
