Bill Haneberg

@haneberg.bsky.social

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Geologist at the geohazard•climate•policy nexus. Terrain modeling, probabilistic tools, geomechanics, GIS, scicomm. Lots to do with landslides. Runner, cyclist, hiker, cook. Albuquerque, New Mexico. He/him. More at www.linkedin.com/in/billhaneberg

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Bill Haneberg

Anyone who thinks that temperatures in the 1930s were as high as today's is confusing global temperatures with temperatures in the U.S., which makes up 2% of the surface area of the globe. Globally, the 1930s were much much cooler than today.

Something I have never understood is the claim by climate change dismissives and deniers is that “the models are wrong”. Time after time we see that the models are remarkably—and depressingly—accurate.

This is yet another demonstration of the power and success of climate science. Successful predictions like this demonstrate that we understand something fundamental about the climate system. In fact, climate science is a parade of successful predictions.

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Reply to

opus reticulatum

Studies have shown that it is ideology & tribalism that drives climate denial; and in turn, much of today’s ideology + polarization is driven by fear of loss of privilege. Those in the demographic that have been at the top of the pyramid for so long are threatened by anything that challenges that.

The big question is, why? I don’t want to get ahead of myself by speculating about causes or triggers, but it would be irresponsible not to consider climate change as a factor. You can say it’s just more people living in hazardous areas, but also need to consider that the hazards are changing.

In the first half of 2024, I have recorded 310 fatal landslides, which have killed 2,315 people. A total of 83 fatal landslides occurred in June alone. This number of fatal landslides greatly exceeds any other year in my dataset:- eos.org/thelandslide... Image from Planet Labs.

2024 fatal landslides at the half way point - an update as of 30 Juneeos.org My data for fatal landslides in 2024 at the half way point continues to show an exceptionally high level of activity.

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Well will pay for climate change one way or another. Be nice if my money was spent on PREVENTING disasters instead of cleaning up afterwards.

The chairman of reinsurer Swiss Re said insurance premiums still aren't high enough to force a reckoning with #climaterisk US home insurance premiums increased 33% over 2020-23 yet "homes are still being built in places they shouldn’t be"... www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

US Home Insurance Still Priced Too Low for Climate Risk, Says Swiss Re Chairwww.bloomberg.com Jacques de Vaucleroy said despite recent increases, premiums will have to climb further to encourage risk aversion.

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If anyone happens to run across a job like this but for climate and environment stuff, I will will knit you anything in gratitude for sending it to me

The Ford Foundation is looking for a new Program Officer for its Technology and Society Program. My sense is that they are looking for folks with deep technology expertise and work experience: fordfoundation.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/FordFo... #AI #STS #Philtech #techpolicy #tech

Program Officerfordfoundation.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com SUMMARY DESCRIPTION The Ford Foundation is seeking a Program Officer to join the Technology and Society program team. The Technology and Society program invests in ideas, individuals, and institutions...

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Bill Haneberg

“California, Florida, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts and New Jersey have the most critical infrastructure that needs to be made more flood resilient – or be relocated to safer ground.” www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Rising sea levels will disrupt millions of Americans’ lives by 2050, study findswww.theguardian.com Floods could leave coastal communities in states like Florida and California unlivable in two decades

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Bill Haneberg

hear me out: expected individual responses to annual price spikes isn't an adaptation plan www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

More extreme fire + more extreme rainfall = more extreme post-fire landslide, debris flow, and flood events. The hazard persists for years. Parts of northern New Mexico affected by the awful 2022 Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak fires also suffered major flooding during the same round of storms last week.

This is the exact same area that was devastated by two wildfires less than two weeks ago. Wildfire makes areas more vulnerable to landslides, and these types of compound whiplash events are becoming more common thanks to, you guessed it, climate change.

Sadly, I know of one case in which a state university research center pulled back in anticipation of what they thought the legislature might do even before a law was passed (and hasn’t yet been in that state).

More enthusiastic overcompliance with these anti-DEI laws. At this point, I can only conclude that many of the top "leaders" in these universities were simply waiting for an excuse to get rid of these student organizations, and now they have it.

At onset of anti-DEI law, Utah colleges close cultural centerswww.insidehighered.com As in Florida, Texas and other states that have passed anti-DEI legislation, Utah’s public institutions are applying the law with a broad brush.

If the judiciary wants to judge, let’s let them do their newly appropriated jobs without interference from trained and experienced agency scientific experts.

The correct response to Chevron being overturned is for every single environmental group to start filing millions of lawsuits, right now, today, arguing that various regulatory decisions didn't go far enough. Absolutely flood the zone.

It’s tedious. In my circles—which include lots of old white man geologists who’re sure they have a uniquely informed perspective—you still hear the hotter in the past, natural variability, heat island, only 0.04%, cold kills more people, and deaths have decreased arguments. None merit debate.

Climate denial is such a simple movement ... they just recycle the same lies over and over and ... again ... everything a climate denier posts is garbage ... for more read routledge.com/Climate-Deni... 🌏🔥 #ClimateBrawl 🔥🌏

Climate Denial in American Politics: #ClimateBrawlroutledge.com Climate Denial in American Politics is a detailed examination of the rise within American politics of climate denialism, the counter movement which challenges the accepted science of climate change. O...

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Bill Haneberg

"Heatwaves Behind the Scenes: Drivers, Mechanisms, Changes, and Impacts" | Consider submitting an abstract to our session (A091) at AGU 2024 Fall Meeting in DC (co-conveners Xueke Li, Michael Wehner & yours truly): agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/pr... #AGU24 #ClimateChange #heatwaves

Landslides, rockfalls, and debris flows, too. Those same river and shoreline routes are in many cases along the toes of slopes that can be destabilized by extreme rainfall and floods.

The rail industry has a climate problem. Rail lines typically follow rivers and shorelines due to the favorable topography. This will mean more washed out and flooded tracks. And it will be rough on the bridges.

North Sioux City homes flooded, railroad bridge collapsed after rivers hit record capacitywww.argusleader.com A rush of floodwaters forced officials to evacuate part of North Sioux City Sunday evening, and a BNSF bridge collapsed overnight from the flood.

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Bill Haneberg

We're going to be hearing a lot about the SCOTUS case on the Chevron defense soon. This is important. And it's one more reason the Supreme Court theocrats are dangerous. www.scientificamerican.com/article/supr...

Supreme Court’s ‘Chevron Deference’ Decision Could Make Science-Based Regulation Harderwww.scientificamerican.com The Supreme Court is considering the fate of Chevron deference, a 40-year legal principle that has shaped the role of government agencies. The outcome could affect medication approval, pollution regul...

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Bill Haneberg

Interesting data from NERC. The forced outage rate (e.g. the inverse of reliability) for coal power is rising in the US as plants reach end of life and don't get maintained as well anymore. Stick a fork in coal power... it's done.

Pumping—mining, really—groundwater on an industrial agricultural scale in the American West has been unsustainable from day one. There is no such thing as safe yield in an arid land; recharge is near zero. Climate change, tragically for the people involved, accelerates the inevitable.

Story on groundwater depletion in the Ogallala aquifer on PBS News Hour tonight, with comments by me on growing climate change risks. www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...

Depletion of major groundwater source threatens Great Plains farmingwww.pbs.org In the heart of the country, Great Plains farmers and ranchers produce a quarter of all U.S. crops and 40 percent of its beef. But they rely on a resource that has been slowly drying up, water. Stepha...

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Bill Haneberg

Shot: Nearly 140K properties moved into high risk flood category in new FEMA flood map update across Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach counties in FL. Chaser: To access Citizens, the FL state insurer of last resort (when you can't get hurricane coverage), you now have to also buy a FEMA flood policy.

Coverage Needed: Hundreds of Thousands in SE Now in Flood Zones With New Mapswww.insurancejournal.com Many more properties, including hundreds of thousands of homes across Florida and other parts of the Southeast, will be required to purchase flood

It feels odd to "like" this but studies like these are important because there is so much misinformation circulating, including claims that wildfires are actually decreasing (no, I won't link to those). Too bad there isn't an "important" or "significant" icon to click.

A study in Nature Ecology & Evolution reports that the frequency and magnitude of extreme wildfires appear to have doubled over the past 20 years, and the six most extreme years for these events have occurred since 2017. go.nature.com/3RFYBPW 🧪

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Bill Haneberg

At the cutting edge of climate research, individual extreme event attribution now takes only days to quantify the human fingerprint. The latest analysis shows that the crippling early season heatwave enveloping the lower US and Mexico is 35 times more likely due to human-caused climate change.

Climate change made killer heat wave in Mexico, Southwest US even warmer and 35 times more likelyapnews.com Daytime temperatures that triggered cases of heat stroke in parts of the United States were 35 times more likely and 2.5 degrees hotter.

I gave up on Elsevier several years ago when a manuscript I submitted was bounced back without review as being inappropriate for the journal. The reason? I had not cited enough papers previously published in that journal. The journal's editors-in-chief did not think that was a problem.

This is really appalling chemsky 🧪⚗️ retractionwatch.com/2024/06/20/e...

‘Exhausting’: Author finds another’s name on an Elsevier book chapter she wroteretractionwatch.com Ina Vandebroek When Ina Vandebroek read the latest edition of Pharmacognosy, an Elsevier textbook to which she contributed a chapter for the 2017 edition, she was shocked. Although she had declined…

Being a scientist, I thought it would be interesting to compare my current home of Albuquerque with Houston and Seattle—places I've also lived during the past 25 years—and the global trend. I also like the bar charts better than stripes. The global trend shows how local anomalies offset each other.

Today’s the longest day of the year in the NH and it is also #showyourstripes day. The warming stripes, that is! The brainchild of @edhawkins.bsky.social, each stripe represents a year. Get the stripes for where you live here and share: showyourstripes.info

Show Your Stripesshowyourstripes.info Visualising how the climate has changed for every country across the globe

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Bill Haneberg

Lately, journalists have asked if scientists didn't warn us enough, or didn't know how bad climate change would be. Scientists did their jobs. It's fossil fuel companies who lied about climate impacts FOR DECADES. They're to blame for these heat waves. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024...

‘Smoking gun proof’: fossil fuel industry knew of climate danger as early as 1954, documents showwww.theguardian.com Documents show industry-backed Air Pollution Foundation uncovered the severe harm climate change would wreak

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Bill Haneberg

Every scientist I know working in climate has done days & days of outreach… it’s not the lack of Sci Comms that’s the issue 🧪

Yesterday's dust storm (aka haboob) moving from Texas into New Mexico was amazing. Here in Albuquerque, north of the images, the 10,000+ foot Sandia and Manzano Mountains spared us the dust but it was still unusually windy. The eastern skyline was surreal. satlib.cira.colostate.edu/event/stunni...

Stunning View of Dust Storm Marching Across New Mexico - RAMMB-CIRA Satellite Librarysatlib.cira.colostate.edu

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Bill Haneberg

Reply to

David Shiffman, Ph.D. 🦈

Precisely my point. It’s interesting (as well as ironic and discouraging) how some who follow the science on climate—and are infuriated by others who don’t—are not always interested in following the science on public opinion, effective messaging & framing, and how to catalyze change.

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Bill Haneberg

This is the climate change impact that matters: no food. I've been begging people for years to stop going on about sea level rise and focus on this.

The weeks-long dry spell striking central China has led many farmers to hold off on planting as agricultural authorities warn of damage to crops. "If it really doesn't rain, (the crops) will all die." phys.org/news/2024-06...

Central China farmers face crop failures in 'withering' droughtphys.org Farmer Bao Mingchen gestured to a dry pipe where water typically irrigates a patch of crops, the soil now cracked under a drought hitting China's vast agricultural hinterland.

This will no doubt be invaluable for those of us interested in landslide and debris flow triggering precipitation events in a changing climate, including post-wildfire slides and flows.

Probably few people here interested in this topic, but I was on a committee that studied how to modernize the idea of "probable maximum precipitation". It was an all-star group of experts to work with, & the report is information-filled (if a bit dense). www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/mod...

www.nationalacademies.org

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At Longiarù in the Dolomite region of northern Italy, a slow moving mudflow is threatening a village. Over 50 houses have been evacuated:- eos.org/thelandslide...

A landslide emergency at Longiarù in northern Italyeos.org At Longiarù in the Dolomite region of northern Italy, a slow moving mudflow is threatening a village. Over 50 houses have been evacuated.

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Bill Haneberg

As I explain here, climate change is not only loading the weather dice against us, it's also replacing some of the numbers with extra 6's and even some 7s and an 8 -- making heatwaves more dangerous, heavy downpours more frequent, droughts longer and stronger, hurricanes intensify faster, and more.

Climate Change Is ‘Loading the Weather Dice Against Us’www.bloomberg.com Rising temperatures are causing “knock-on effects that we’re only just beginning to understand,” climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe says on this week’s Zero.