I am trying so hard to imagine a scenario where the Biden campaign isn't mortally wounded by all these turncoats leaking "concerns" to the press.
Or to imagine a scenario where a replacement candidate could conceivably gear up a campaign in time to win.
The former seems less and less likely with each passing hour of media vulture feasting on all the Biden body parts the NYT keeps tossing around.
And the latter strikes me as pure fantasy based on everything I know about how campaigns work.
Also the Heritage Foundation drooling at the chance to challenge ballot access for a new candidate fills me with dread, since we all know what happens when that goes to the courts.
Okay, first scenario: The long struggle...
Biden continues to have a meh time throughout the summer as the feeding frenzy continues. However, after a rousing and well performed speech at the DNC, indies start to forget a bad debate performance and the dooming from the media halts. Then...
The real campaign kicks up to high gear. Trump, continues to be himself, but after a fearful spell where Biden might be replaced if he goes after him too much, Trump decides he's already won and enters lazy campaign mode. Anyone who challenges his view is toss aside and his numbers droop.
The end result is Biden pulling back ahead as Trump goes in for sentencing for his NY trial, and being fully ahead as Trump is taken off the campaign trail entirely due to being incarcerated. Biden ends up winning with a smaller margin than previously, but manages to get the win in the EC.
Second scenario: Big changes...
Biden either kicks the bucket prior to the convention or drops out. Despite some pressure from Harris to just let her have the nom, if alive, Biden opts to direct the DNC to have an 'open-ish' convention. Else it is just an open convention.
Harris does well in the first round on the floor, but ends up coming in second to . There is some question after the convention about ballot access, however, despite numerous lawsuits, as the dems had a nominating convention, most states opt...
...to let the new nominee on the ballot based on the text of their related laws. A few states are hold outs, do to a mix of crap laws and shitty judges, but wasn't going to win Oklahoma anyway. And the barring of in some spots is used as part of the fall campaign.
Various ads show casing Trump getting special permission to be on all the ballots despite being an insurrectionist vs having to fight tooth and nail to secure access in the face of a hostile judiciary. Aka, a fairness play that paints as a person of good character.
The Trump sentencing happens in September, which also gives a boost to who is able to capitalize on it through a mix of having established their own positive character and pointing out that Trump can't honestly serve from prison. This goes over well generally to get a very solid win.
Er, I think you've stumbled on why Biden has to stay on - because they are holding a pro forma nomination BEFORE the Convention so that he can be on Ohio's ballot. It's not possible to wait until the convention to decide on the candidate because you can't give up Ohio.
Ohio is presently a reach in terms of Democratic prospects. It is a valuable state, sure, but there's much more straight forward and workable electoral paths to 270 that don't include Ohio.
So, an alternative such as a write in campaign in Ohio might be doable for the alternative path.
I was in Cincinnati canvasing and poll monitoring in 2008. Flipping Hamilton County, and Ohio entirely, was huge.
You can't surrender Ohio. You also can't not support downballot there.
