I am trying so hard to imagine a scenario where the Biden campaign isn't mortally wounded by all these turncoats leaking "concerns" to the press.
Or to imagine a scenario where a replacement candidate could conceivably gear up a campaign in time to win.
The former seems less and less likely with each passing hour of media vulture feasting on all the Biden body parts the NYT keeps tossing around.
And the latter strikes me as pure fantasy based on everything I know about how campaigns work.
Also the Heritage Foundation drooling at the chance to challenge ballot access for a new candidate fills me with dread, since we all know what happens when that goes to the courts.
Okay, first scenario: The long struggle...
Biden continues to have a meh time throughout the summer as the feeding frenzy continues. However, after a rousing and well performed speech at the DNC, indies start to forget a bad debate performance and the dooming from the media halts. Then...
The real campaign kicks up to high gear. Trump, continues to be himself, but after a fearful spell where Biden might be replaced if he goes after him too much, Trump decides he's already won and enters lazy campaign mode. Anyone who challenges his view is toss aside and his numbers droop.
The end result is Biden pulling back ahead as Trump goes in for sentencing for his NY trial, and being fully ahead as Trump is taken off the campaign trail entirely due to being incarcerated. Biden ends up winning with a smaller margin than previously, but manages to get the win in the EC.
Second scenario: Big changes...
Biden either kicks the bucket prior to the convention or drops out. Despite some pressure from Harris to just let her have the nom, if alive, Biden opts to direct the DNC to have an 'open-ish' convention. Else it is just an open convention.
The latter is why if there is a replacement it'll absolutely be Harris; she's already a candidate for this specific campaign and could continue to use its funds/infrastructure.
My cope about the latter is we're so far out of the range of normal events the standard assumptions may not apply. Although jfc are people underestimating how complicated this will be
They won’t be mortally wounded, I don’t think. And I think if they survive this, they can win. The RNC being an utter authoritarian shitshow will mobilise a lot of Democrats to vote to stop Trump, too.
It’s Sulzberger trying to tip the election for Trump, because he doesn’t think Trump can beat Biden. And he wants Trump to win. It’s why Republicans are leaking they’re more scared of other Democrats running.
Yeah, I think almost everyone knows how they’re voting already and it’s mostly a matter of who can motivate turnout more (or suppress more votes, or pull off a coup).
But Democrats need the votes, and to win the election, so they get the military’s support to avert any possible coup attempt and/or SCOTUS just handing it to Trump. So even if you think they’ll try to steal it you NEED to vote.
It's definitely why the strongest push from the right online right now is actively trying to drum up voter apathy.
"Swing voters" only seem to exist insofar as the people who already have an established ideology but may decide staying home instead of voting is okay for them.
I mean, I was always going to vote blue in November, but the last few days has motivated me even more. To the point that I'm going to tell people to PLEASE vote blue in November.
(Whether it be Biden or another Democrat)
It doesn't look like the debate performance has actually made much difference to the polls. And I'm not sure how much most voters pay attention to the newspaper is either.
I'm not even sure what's happening inside the party. I'm seeing a lot of rumors, but I don't know what's true. If the rumors are correct, though, there's absolute panic. Where is the courage?
