Jay Weixelbaum

@jayweixelbaum.bsky.social

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Science writer. Political analyst. Producer. PhD. Historian of fascism in American business.
Views my own.

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Re-upping this, since folks are asking about it:

Biden is going to win. Why? Tune out the whining and look at the fundamentals. U.S. election have the same basic factors that determine who will hold the White House-- going all the way back to the horse & buggy days of Abraham Lincoln.

Yes. They forgot. And now people demand emotional validation for their doomerism based on this complete garbage.

also holy shit how much did the left talk about the MASSIVE INFLUX OF SHITTY POLLS that destroyed aggregation models in 2022? did literally everyone forget everything?

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Jay Weixelbaum

Reply to

Daniel Gilmore

All polling is not in fact equal. & if youre going to be someone that spends an inordinate amount of time fixated on polling u should at least do the minimum of learning how to properly read it, assess its methodology, & know the context of who produced it. Otherwise youre just being a useful idiot

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Jay Weixelbaum

There was *so much* garbage, R aligned polling in 2022 pushed out w the express purpose to drive narratives & juke polling avgs. Post 2022, when it was clear it was all malicious junk, I thought ppl would be more cautious about how they treated polling, but some ppl just want to feed their anxieties

this poll: 1) is by Remington 2) is for, jointly, Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce and American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers 3) is from two weeks ago held to be released during the convention 4) does not have publicly available crosstabs

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Jay Weixelbaum

This seems like a grim natural experiment to show that access to mental health services isn't going to neutralize access to guns when it comes to controlling violence

Jesus, both of Thomas Matthew Crooks' parents are licensed professional counselors. "The AR-15 rifle Crooks used was one of more than a dozen registered to and legally purchased by his father, with whom he often went to the shooting range, officials said." www.wsj.com/us-news/myst...

Spread far and wide. RFK is working for Trump.

RFK Jr apologises after leaked phone call in which Trump seems to offer deal

RFK Jr apologises after leaked phone call in which Trump seems to offer dealwww.theguardian.com Independent candidate’s son posts video online in which Republican also rambles about vaccines, horses and babies

If you are out there spreading demoralizing messages, we’re going to have a brief and uncomfortable exchange. Help or get out of the way.

No. You don’t know what the hell you’re talking about. Adults can separate petulant demands for emotional validation from fundamental disadvantages AND advantages in the current situation. Play your video games. You have nothing to offer but self centered whining. It’s less than useful.

This is your reminder to take care of yourself. It's hard to separate our feelings from the facts. Even the most informed of us cannot see the future. Some can see trends, both apparent and obscure; but our collective doom or fortune are undetermined.

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Jay Weixelbaum

Biden will reportedly unveil a new proposal in Nevada on Tuesday to cap rental costs nationwide at 5%

Biden to unveil plan to cap rents as GOP convention beginswww.washingtonpost.com The policy plan comes as the president tries to assure Democrats about the viability of his candidacy.

All the fans of Hillbilly Elegy look even less wise in retrospect. They should have listened more.

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Jay Weixelbaum

Do not obey in advance.

In case you haven’t read it elsewhere yet, Jack Smith will appeal to the 11th circuit and a new judge will likely take over Cannon’s case. The circuit judges have already expressed alarm at Cannon’s actions and I see the case being reassigned as a positive development.

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Jay Weixelbaum

This place needs to confront the situation that it a) has an immovable contingent of far-left nihilists who serially bully big-name accounts into leaving, b) has insufficient moderation to stop them succeeding and that this probably means c) zero chances of any meaningful growth until this changes.

A preemptive welcome to all the newly minted Gerald Ford assassination attempt historians

I’ll find some sympathy as soon as they find some gun control.

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Jay Weixelbaum

Some of these Republicans who are (naturally enough) agreeing with Democrats tonight that violence has no place in our politics will be in an awkward spot when Trump once again insists that it does.

Sooner or later, many of y’all need to the face the fact that you’re just looking for excuses for doom & gloom. Underneath that is guilt and shame due to laziness. It’s not a victimless act. It demoralizes others and creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. I reject it.

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Jay Weixelbaum

Anyone who took a twenty minute break from the internet

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Jay Weixelbaum

People who are assuring us that this means Trump is going to win are clearly unfamiliar with the deeply weird lore of this country's THREE mid-seventies presidential-candidate assassination attempts.

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Jay Weixelbaum

The staging area for my canvas for Biden in NH is "week before the election" levels of packed. I don't think we have an enthusiasm problem.

This is an excellent thread. And this section, oof. Think about the irony of the opening sentence here.

Journalists have never been good at listening. That's why @brizzyc.bsky.social and I started Engagement Journalism (moving to Montclair State): to teach journalists to listen. In the wagon-circling by Times' Kahn, Post's Lewis, NYer's Remnick, CNN's Zaslav, we see a failure to listen and learn. 4/

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Jay Weixelbaum

Reply to

olive consumer

Leftism is thinking the aggressive pursuit of power and control is only worrisome when people you don't like do it.

Spring: Cultural Appropriation Scarves Summer: Ageism Strikes Back Fall: The Hobbits Arrive at Mount Doom Winter: ??

Debates have no predictive value. You know what does? Leadership. www.nbcnews.com/now/video/bi...

Biden says Israel and Hamas have agreed to a cease-fire frameworkwww.nbcnews.com President Biden put out a statement saying Israel and Hamas had agreed to a cease-fire framework but admitted "there is still work to do." NBC News' Josh Lederman has details on the proposed framework...

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Jay Weixelbaum

Hey wow as someone with a stutter y’all are not kind At all Do you know what happens when you have the kind of stutter where you swap words? Your brain makes an association in a split second and you go “no, not that”, especially when nervous, and it just blorts out of your mouth.

@nytimes.com good op-ed on Trump but this is far too little and several years too late. Get this: My wife has been a subscriber for at least a decade. She loved to read the Sunday paper. Your biased attacks on Biden were even too much for her. She cancelled yesterday.

Folks, we have to talk about polling. The media loves to build narratives around them, which play with our emotions during election cycles. But there are serious short-term and long-term issues with polling we have to keep in mind:

People need messages of hope right now. Hopelessness, demoralization, cynicism-these have very real health consequences. Let's set aside the politics. The election is still a few months away. It's time for folks to give themselves a break. Some may need permission to do that. Encourage them.

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Jay Weixelbaum

Something I never knew existed when I was younger: There is an elite system of arbitrage in which the rich want to be famous and hang out with famous people; famous people want to be seen as smart and hang out with smart people, and smart people want money so they hang out with rich people.