Mesarthim Q. P.: But Times/Siena had so much of the other problem they commented on it. They can't BOTH be right. "I ain't talkin to you! Only NATIONAL POLLS from the FAILING NEW YORK TIMES! **TRUMP!!!**"

Look the important thing is that we never ever incorporate non-polling information into our interpretation of these results

Oh.

If we see Democrats winning by 5+ over expectation and overperforming in the midterms, fuck it, its a toss up now because the pollz said so

Sorry, man. Polls say we're about to see a racial realignment the likes of which we haven't seen since the Civil Rights Act was signed. Gotta prepare for it.

Times is already predrafting its "2024, year of the Hotep vote" as we speak

The irony is I can easily see Trump winning in pretty much the way he won the first time (minority and youth turnout drops, Biden's strength with older whites is overstated), but that's not what the polls are saying. So anyone banking on that is denying the polls as much as anyone else.

Yeah I can see a path to Trump winning. I don't think its the likeliest scenario, but I will just not put it at less than 30% odds that Trump will outright win. But yeah the stories the crosstabs on these bad polls is telling is not that story, at all

And like, there's clear polling momentum for Biden, not that any of these stories ever bring it up

Marquette had Biden+2 in Wisconsin (a four-point swing from April) on the same day NYT/Siena put Trump+3 nationally, and one of those is going to be wrong.

Doomers want to say this was all expected due to Republican non-response, but doesn't this say that is actually not an issue? Think it comes down to a bunch of well-informed people feeling a certain way about the possible outcome and construing willies with "being realistic about the polls."

But Times/Siena had so much of the other problem they commented on it. They can't BOTH be right. "I ain't talkin to you! Only NATIONAL POLLS from the FAILING NEW YORK TIMES! **TRUMP!!!**"

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