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You can quibble with these numbers but it is objectively funny to compare the meltdown among pundits and "insiders" etc to an effort at representative sampling. Two completely different universes.
We have our first post-debate poll. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-...
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"trump gains 0.2%, still trails biden" is, uh, not quite what people last night were predicting.
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I like the way biden's 46% is somehow lower on the graph than trump's 43%, thanks nate silver
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Nate Silver doesn't run 538 anymore.
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ah well whoever stepped up is keeping the fine standards there it looks like
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Nothing Ever Happens remains undefeated.
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Guess I'll reschedule my suicide!
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Kennedy did well last night.
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The only way to win is not to play the game.
But I’ve already drawn the bath and pulled out the straight razor…
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I dunno ... Biden is a smidge behind in an average of the polls, but an immediate drop of 2 points of lead in a sample that had him ahead looks bad to me. Plus these things often gather momentum.
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it's not *good* but it's wildly and hilariously incommensurate with the meltdown the entire commentariat had last night.
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Get your point, and agree he's not out yet, but I suspect their reaction will be as much what leads to Biden losing votes as debate itself.. kinda reminds me of the Hilary emails thing, ppl who didn't really follow either will just get sense that they're not the person for it. Hope I'm wrong ofc
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Look, George, they had these pre-writes and the first fifteen looked like it was a Biden Old kinda day so like, push that out the editor and call it a night y'know
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If Biden's voters parked themselves in 3rd party options instead of Trump, they'll be back. And asking the same people is good; avoids differential response bias which I expect will show up in other polling as Democrats go into hiding.
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Or three. An ambiguous loss isn't unexpected for me personally. Biden could get lucky or change gears but for now the bleeding has started.