Ryan

@ryanmacsf.bsky.social

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SF-based Ameri-Brit. Owner of English Lab called Kayo.

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It was always a stupid idea to outsource the 2024 campaign to the judicial branch.

This summer suddenly feels very political and I’m not sure I love it

I’d suggest that switching Biden is not going to be easy. The egos inside the Democratic Party make British politicians look like shrinking violets.

Transfer initiated - 15 years in California and now back to London…

If Brexit was an earthquake, July 4th is going to be a meteor

I just don’t think it’s that inconceivable that 20% of the electorate, who are wound up by the events of the last 5 years, are prepared to vote for Reform. Just look at Euro elections/2019 GE election.

I think this is what is going on

Nigel Farage is circling. His aim? To pick apart the carcass of a withered Tory party | Rafael Behrwww.theguardian.com The prospect of a parliamentary run may entice him when the prize is a chance to hollow out the party and occupy its shell, says Guardian columnist Rafael Behr

My instinctive prediction is the polls get a little worse for Sunak now.

100%

one aspect of the Biden admin has been an enormous redirection of capital away from tech bullshit and into Building Stuff, and I think this explains a lot of the hysteria among VCs bsky.app/profile/lolg...

Cul de Sac, Saint Martin

Even at the upper end of the polls, just a little bit of tactical voting will be devastating to the Tories. They are in some serious trouble.

UK (GB), We Think poll: LAB-S&D: 44% (-3) CON~ECR: 25% (+1) LDEM-RE: 10% GREENS-G/EFA: 5% (-1) REFORM~NI: 10% (-1) SNP-G/EFA: 3% (+1) +/- vs. 21–22 March 2024 Fieldwork: 27–28 March 2024 Sample size: 1,295 europeelects.eu/uk

Seems blindingly obvious to me that the election is going to be in May. No legislative business, Sunak doing party political broadcasts and interviews on the daily, repeating campaign slogan (back to square one) ad nauseum. Which means dissolution is 7 weeks away…

I have been sleeping on The Traitors. The most compelling game show in years.

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Ryan

If you're a Black woman in academia recycling boilerplate sentences (this is the main charge against Dr Gay) you get excessive scrutiny even on acknowledgment section and plagiarism case slapped on you. If you're an AI Bro in OpenAI doing the same thing you're a tech messiah ushering in a new era.

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"I've got something really important I want to ask you" "oh my god" "do you earn over £38,700 per year?"

This has the energy of Connor Roy speaking at the funeral of Uncle Mo in Succession.

You *really* need to see the side-by-side comparison to fully appreciate the differences. Especially if you don't get why people are saying that the Kissinger statement is cold.

Woke me up at 5am, just to sit on the sofa and stare at me.

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Ryan

me logging back into twitter for a sec

I’m sure David Cameron’s introductory calls with foreign counterparts are going to go swell. When they ask about the ECHR, he can confidently reply that it’s only for managing the internal politics of the Conservative Party and will never happen.

👀👀“Several have already been commissioned to undertake detailed work on the party’s priorities for government. The name of Olly Robbins, Theresa May’s Brexit adviser, keeps cropping up.” www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sue-...

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Ryan

pleb

So Ohio legalizes weed. At what point does UK drug policy begin to catch up with even the most conservative US states?

If it really is to be a May election, we are only 18 weeks away from parliament being dissolved.

This is a nice description.

It's like the other one but with fewer headbangers and a good many more tenured professors of history / archaeology / geology. And a couple of lawyers here & there.

Can you imagine the campaign videos Labour can make from this?

Is there an argument that holding for longer is an existential risk to Tories? What can materially improve in 9-12 months that is going to counteract a national mood that nothing is being done?

New YouGov poll gives Labour a 24-point lead. If repeated at a general election, the Conservatives would lose all but 71 seats. Those losing their seats would include Rishi Sunak, Suella Braverman, Grant Shapps, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Penny Mordaunt, Theresa May and Lee Anderson

Busted

Good.

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Ryan

I’m absolutely thrilled to see science Twiiter 🧪 and academic Twitter more generally moving here to bluesky. Twitter was obviously untenable. That said, we need to be mindful of new inequities that may be inadvertently created by moving the conversation to a currently restricted closed platform.

Do the Tory party really think Sunak can compete with Starmer on this kind of form?