calling it now: whenever nate releases the nyt/sienna it's gonna have it neck and neck, probably a smallish trump lead, and that lead is going to be basically entirely from, oh, let's say, a 40 to 50 point shift R among nonwhite 18-29s.
this will be, fundamentally, unchanged from every single other poll this year, and you can belive it's a plausible reflection of the outcome in november or not.
oh actually let me add one more thing: nyt/sienna will probably show trump narrowly winning women. maybe even white women
Wait, 2020 had the 2nd highest turnout for a presidential election on record, trailing only 1960 based on voting age population. Who was eligibile to vote last time and didn't but would vote this time? If anything you'd expect a reversion to the mean with two candidates this unpopular.
