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calling it now: whenever nate releases the nyt/sienna it's gonna have it neck and neck, probably a smallish trump lead, and that lead is going to be basically entirely from, oh, let's say, a 40 to 50 point shift R among nonwhite 18-29s.
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Man, this is why I don't believe a god damned thing about these polls.
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Like you said @swolecialism.bsky.social it would be a lot easier to not be totally blackpilled about these polls if their cross tabs bore even a passing resemblance to this reality or one even remotely near it