Folks, I spent today jumping into weeds of the French election in this thread—you can read it below!—but I'm sure I lost many of you who want the 'big picture'.
Let's do a quick AMA for 10-15 minutes: ask me what you want to know!
JUST IN: Polls closed in first round of France elections. Two main French TV estimates (combines early results & exit poll) show strong far-right.
Far-right bloc: ≈34%
Left bloc: ≈28-29%
Macron bloc: ≈20-22%
What does this mean? What'll happen? Follow this thread ⬇️
Can you explain a bit the background of the seat projections for round 2? Ig there are really so many democratic alliances forming against RN and if they are just at 33% today; why would they be able to end up with 250+ seats in the run-offs?
1) IPSOS pollster point blank said on TV that the projection was based on the round 1 results, including if there are 3-ways. So it will surely change.
2) But also 2022 had nearly only two-way runoffs ... and RN did unexpectedly well in those. Drop-outs don't really equate ''Democratic alliances'
