Too Big to Fail: Something I've been thinking about in the wake of the debate last week is that terminally online political people (myself very much included) may have seen it as an absolute disaster for Biden, but much of the voting population may have already baked in their belief that Biden is just like that.

Something I've been thinking about in the wake of the debate last week is that terminally online political people (myself very much included) may have seen it as an absolute disaster for Biden, but much of the voting population may have already baked in their belief that Biden is just like that.

So we have our first apples-to-apples polling comparison by a reputable pollster: 7/1 Morning Consult | Trump 44, Biden 43 (Trump +1) 6/28 Morning Consult | Trump 44, Biden 45 (Biden +1) This is not a meaningful change.

Wait, you mean we shouldn't push Biden aside for a Gina Raimondo/Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson ticket? I might have to update my priors! Nah.

I could see it! But also that NH poll out there didn't feel good. Feel like I'm not going to know much until solidly after the 4th.

I remember very well how many people insisted Hillary drop out after getting a cold in 2016, and she still won by 3 million votes.

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