Dan Nexon

@dhnexon.bsky.social

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"'A man without a plan is not a man.' Nietzsche."

Professor in the Department of Government and SFS @ Georgetown.

I study international order, power politics, & empires.

dhnexon.net | https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com | duckofminerva.com |

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Dan Nexon

The Economist has some astonishing figures on Russian losses in Ukraine. They surpass all losses by the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation from 1945 to 2022 combined. Up to 728,000 soldiers eliminated, confirming Ukraine’s figures. 1/2

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Dan Nexon

In the first 24 - 48 hrs after the debate I thought it was media/donor contrivance but after talking with family and friends it does seem like a genuine concern by people. And it’s not a sign of support for Trump.

I'd be shocked if data came back showing a new desire for Biden to step down is a top down phenomenon. Every relatively normal (non political junkie) Dem I talk to, every one, thinks the debate showed Biden needs to step aside. NY Times coverage is annoying, but the debate created this.

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Dan Nexon

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Seth D. Michaels

We have a 102-101 Democratic majority in the Pennsylvania State House, winning that last seat by 58 votes out of 33K+ cast (a 0.18% margin), and fell short on the 103rd seat by 76 votes out of ~31K cast (0.24% margin). Every vote matters here, and every dollar helps.

I just gave to Pennsylvania House Democratic Campaign Committee!secure.actblue.com Show your support with a contribution.

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Dan Nexon

The "Ukraine never in NATO" crowd seems to think they're avoiding confrontation with Russia, but they're actually encouraging Russia in a confrontation that's well underway. Events are past the point where "don't make Russia nervous, don't push back, or they might get aggressive" becomes denial.

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Dan Nexon

some ambitious young creative should make a series of Schoolhouse Rock-style animated info clips based on Project 2025

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Dan Nexon

I really don’t think most people realize just how hard the boot will come down if Trump and the Republicans win the election. Most people have never experienced the totalitarian surveillance state with the power to reach into their homes and minds at will they are telling us is their plan.

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Dan Nexon

Trump: I don't know anything about Project 2025 Here is a list of all the Trump officials who authored the Project 2025 blueprint, Mandate for Leadership. 25 of 36 were part of the Trump administration. project2025istheocracy.substack.com/p/project-20...

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Dan Nexon

OTD 65 years ago at Barksdale AFB, Louisiana, a C-124 transport carrying three B39 3.8 Megaton thermonuclear bombs to Little Rock AFB, Arkansas, crashed on takeoff. The C-124 and three weapons were destroyed in the ensuing fire. The government kept key details of this Broken Arrow secret until 1982.

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Dan Nexon

1/n Since we are talking about project 2025, here are some things a Trump administration plans to do with higher education policy, in no particular order

static.project2025.org

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Dan Nexon

In the exact same nine day period that Biden and his White House and campaign have been flailing, Trump has offered voters a window into his own mental state and vision for term 2 It’s not great! www.rollingstone.com/politics/pol...

QAnon Memes, F-Bombs, and Tribunals: As Biden Faltered, Trump Amped Up the Crazywww.rollingstone.com Trump quietly had his own week from hell while the media was hounding Biden

Well, I remember to do this after only a gap of a week. The challenge is to choose 20 books that greatly influenced you. One book per day, for 20 days. No explanations, no reviews. Just covers. 2/20

Ok. I'll bite. Chances that I'll last 20 days? Low. The challenge is to choose 20 books that greatly influenced you. One book per day, for 20 days. No explanations, no reviews. Just covers. 1/20 #booksky

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Dan Nexon

The discourse around biden needing more sleep is fully insane. Does no one remember "Executive Time," the thing Trump spent the majority(!) of his schedule on where he would just watch TV and tweet? Dude was categorically unable to fulfill any of the demands of the office and the press barely cared

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Dan Nexon

If this resonates with you as an expert in your field, please feel free to hit me up on how to pitch an op-ed to MSNBC dot com

Where are the columnists who are experts in specific fields, breaking down what the Heritage Foundation + Trump want to do to each individual federal agency? E.g. I read the section dedicated to our intelligence agencies, and had to stop, since I was starting to feel a little nauseous.

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Dan Nexon

Note this: Mark Robinson's spokesman "did not respond to a question about who the people with 'evil intent' are that Robinson alluded to immediately prior to the 'killing' comments."

Mark Robinson's campaign is now trying to spin away the significance of his violent rant. North Carolina reporter Rob Schofield does a nice job cutting through the campaign's talking points and showing why his comments are so concerning: bsky.app/profile/greg...

FYSA www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Biden Narrows Gap With Trump in Swing States Despite Debate Losswww.bloomberg.com The incumbent trails his GOP rival by just 2 points across key states, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult shows, even as three in 10 Democrats say he should leave the race.

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Dan Nexon

I am once again asking everyone to stop talking shit about Iran for like fifteen minutes

Breaking News: The reformist Masoud Pezeshkian won Iran’s presidential runoff election, reflecting discontent with hard-line policies. The special election was held after former President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash in May.

Reformist Candidate Wins Iran’s Presidential Electionwww.nytimes.com Masoud Pezeshkian defeated an ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, in a runoff.

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Dan Nexon

Even a tepid choice can be a momentous change when the alternative is evil

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Dan Nexon

Oh thank God. Besides everything else, Rwanda is (a) a real dictatorship that should not make anyone's list of "safe" countries, and (b) seriously overpopulated.

Even a tepid choice can be a momentous change when the alternative is evil

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Dan Nexon

Someone on the other site said this summed up Starmer. If true, that's sort of dazzling. But it also makes the point - again - that FPTP is wildly volatile and weird and we should throw it away.

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Dan Nexon

We need more, but credit where due: both The Nation (June 2024 issue) and Boston Review have run a breakdown of the Project 2025 “Mandate for Leadership” document. Media Matters, too. Lots of good work going on digesting this. www.bostonreview.net/articles/ins... www.mediamatters.org/project-2025

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Dan Nexon

"Academics researching online misinformation in the US are learning a hard lesson: Academic freedom cannot be taken for granted." @rcalo.bsky.social & @katestarbird.bsky.social: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

American academic freedom is in perilwww.science.org Academics researching online misinformation in the US are learning a hard lesson: Academic freedom cannot be taken for granted. They face a concerted effort—including by members of Congress—to undermi...

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Dan Nexon

When Trump tweeted out what became the transgender military ban with a 17-minute gap between tweets, I was on the phone with someone on the JCS. During the lag, we debated if we'd feel it if he nuked North Korea.

I for one am pretty fixated on not having to spend even more years of my life wondering if Donald fucking Trump is going to deploy nuclear weapons

Preface: I have no idea what the party should do. Comment: the ratfucking is inevitable, but not all ratfucking is created equal. The problem with “is Biden too old?” attack is that a) he doesn’t seem to have an answer and b) it might not be possible.

yeah i think short of biden dying or having some extraordinary fuck up there’s no making harris the candidate this fall that isn’t very bad electorally imo she could still win but like it’s a huge ass gamble with the only possible upshot the Loves Ratfucking Times suddenly stops ratfucking

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Dan Nexon

Explosive reporting in Le Monde confirms what was apparent all week: Macron resisted the emergence of anti-far-right front after round 1. His PM, Attal, forced it as a fait accompli, & pressured for drop outs to block RN. Even then, Macron made some phone calls to undercut it.

Législatives 2024 : entre l’Elysée et Matignon, tensions sur le front républicainwww.lemonde.fr L’attitude à tenir face à la montée de l’extrême droite a profondément divisé Emmanuel Macron et Gabriel Attal. Leurs stratégies, parfois contraires, se sont parasitées avant le second tour des électi...

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Dan Nexon

Executive Time was him yelling at Morning Joe while someone put together a Cliffs Notes version of the security briefing so Trump could sell them to our adversaries.

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Dan Nexon

really great that prominent political journalists won’t just say that trump is lying and here’s why

Huh

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Dan Nexon

The view that Trump is bad but Biden is worse is not liberalism, progressivism, leftism, or socialism. It's insanity or corruption, probably both.

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Dan Nexon

yes, we boiled the planet, but it was worth it to make a machine that, instead of adding two plus two, takes the statistical average of every answer to questions containing "what" "is" "two" and "plus" from a database of illegal cell phone transcripts and returns a fake nude pic of a high schooler

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Dan Nexon

As always, I beg of all of you to read posts made to Trump's account as campaign communications and not individual rantings. This is the campaign telling the Project 2025 assholes not to screw up Trump's chances of winning.

Today in "Trump didn't write this, someone on his campaign staff did." I don't know if Kellyanne Conway is working for Trump these days but this feels more like her style, voice, and syntax than Trump or those posting on his behalf recently.

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Dan Nexon

if the media could go ahead and treat this claim the way they treat Biden saying "I'm fine" - aka, as a lie that requires days on end of front page stories to debunk - that would be great we'll be over here waiting

Trump is trying to get ahead of the reality that he and the heritage foundation are working to destroy America and institute a fascist dictatorship. He is lying and expecting the media to gaslight America for him.