yarrriv: I'm not sure this counts as a win? It's more like he played Russian Roulette and lost but the doctors might still save him

Meanwhile in France, polling models that take account of the dropouts post-first round suggest a completely different result than the as many as 300 RN seats that were predicted after the first round. Huge. *FRANCE'S LE PEN GROUP WOULD GET 190-220 SEATS: BFM CITES HARRIS

that son of a bitch Macron might win this insane gamble after all

I'm not sure this counts as a win? It's more like he played Russian Roulette and lost but the doctors might still save him

I don't really know how the the semi-presidential system works but it's very hard to do a cordon sanitaire around a party that holds 40% of the seats

well first off you're citing a different seat estimate which is much higher than the one I did lol

Your low estimate still puts them at like 33% - his working majority would have to include NUPES and LR at the same time somehow

In some sense this seems like the worse case scenario - the legislature is completely paralyzed, and RN don't even get any of the blame for 2027 because they're not in government

sorry I guess they're NFP this time around, not NUPES, the French system of changing their alliance names every cycle is a bit tedious

Left will split up after election, was just an electoral pact & no love lost. I did estimate (based on 5% of seats led by each party in R1) and PS & either LR or Greens would've been enough along with centre for majority. Small sample, hadn't time to manually do 577, but far from implausible

I had read somewhere that RNs plan was to decline governance if they only came up with a plurality bc they wanted outright majority or nothing. Who knows if that’s the case or if it holds. I have the knowledge level of French politics as most Americans: mostly nothing lol 🤷🏻‍♂️

fair enough, as I said I'm not even sure how government formation works under their system

“Won” merely in the sense of Le Pens party not getting a majority I guess

Lot of that going around lately.

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