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reminder that Trump won in a squeaker in 2016 after cheating extravagantly and the vast majority of candidates he's endorsed since his term began have gotten shellacked at the ballot box. he's gonna get destroyed in Nov. and I'm gonna laugh about it
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Not sure what has changed from then to now to suddenly have him getting “destroyed”. Not that I don’t want it to be so, I just don’t see it. It will be close again.
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He should be losing by 10. It’s scary parties can be this close to electoral parity after one of them does Dobbs and J6.
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Exactly. It won’t change them. Ever. Not in a general.
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I mean he should have been drummed out of the running by his own party on any number of occasions but the whole edifice is so rotten he's just taken it over instead. That's the real tragedy of him, not that he's particularly evil but that we have a party that will countenance him.
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I asked a conservative relative if they’d vote for Hitler if they ran as a Republican and they said I guess so before thinking about it.
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Yup. That’s where we’re at.
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just ignore the polls...they've been wrong for almost a decade now....the media has to hype Trump up otherwise they have nothing to fill the air with during an election campaign. Meanwhile, GOP is losing state house seats in Alabama.
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Special elections are a welcome sign but general elections are harder to predict since they bring in so many more infrequent voters. If I could convince Republican campaigns to ignore polls, I would, since they’d waste a lot more resources.
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well, we found another way to get them to waste resources - their orgs are now legal defense funds for Trump
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Polls in this age are trash. Even pollsters will tell you it takes 10,000 phone calls, some made two and three times to the same number in order to get 900 respondents. Only exit polls matter.
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By itself that just makes polling more expensive. One theory is that right wingers are now less likely to answer polls due to anti-polling sentiment from their leaders. Campaigns also still have to make choices about what’s competitive with limited info. www.politico.com/news/2021/07...
Pollsters: ‘Impossible’ to say why 2020 polls were wrongwww.politico.com A new report couldn’t answer the big question plaguing political polling: Why were surveys off by so much in 2020?
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Good article but it asks more questions than it answers. The facts don't bear out that trump is a better candidate than he was in 20' and he had a lot of help in 16'. Barring Biden dropping dead Trump gets his 40% and still loses by a landslide.
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40% would be like LBJ vs. Goldwater territory. I’d love to see it, but I’m not sure the media or political environment can produce those kind of landslides anymore.