Alastair Meeks: Reform were kept to single digits in Jeremy Hunt’s constituency, lower than in any adjacent constituency. This probably made the difference in his result. Given Jeremy Hunt isn’t exactly a darling of the right, if I were a Conservative I’d be absorbed right now in how he did that.

Reform were kept to single digits in Jeremy Hunt’s constituency, lower than in any adjacent constituency. This probably made the difference in his result. Given Jeremy Hunt isn’t exactly a darling of the right, if I were a Conservative I’d be absorbed right now in how he did that.

Partly an effect of high turnout, I'd guess, it was 74% there. So the question might be how he got out the Tory voters who stayed at home elsewhere.

How did the LDs do relatively?

Both the Conservatives and the r Lib Dems very effectively squeezed the others. But this was a rarity for the Conservatives, and really stands out. So Mr Hunt has some valuable information to share with colleagues.

Compare and contrast Suella Braverman, who you’d have thought was much more appealing to Reformers.

Interesting. My guess is that in the end he held on because he’s somewhat more palatable to LD curious voters.

I think a combination of 1. Take the threat seriously, early 2. Actually being okay at politics 3. Being a diligent local MP 4. Targeting 5. Name recognition as chancellor 6. One nation vibes

The Green Party parachuted in a candidate rather than one of the local Green councillors - at one point they thought they might win.

Reform % similar to other seats in that part of Surrey eg Guilford, Woking. They did slightly better in Dorking. Affluent commuter belt with LibDems well entrenched as the natural challengers. Maybe fewer Tory voters deserted to LibDem given Hunt's relatively leftward place in the party?

Also Hunt campaigned hard locally. And he is very articulate, in a way that appeals to centre-ish folk who just want intelligent government.

These people are not Reform supporters or Reform-curious. As I said, every adjacent constituency had a higher Reform vote share. This may be turnout-related but that in itself is interesting if so.

I do know they got a much smaller swing against him (8.8%) than they were managing in other targeted seats (Harrogate was 15.8%, Henley 17%, Witney 19.6% etc)

Entirely binning off the national campaign and doing local work full-time, no?

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